Online Poker Forum - Bubble 45man SNG. ICM fold?

lovebeefstew · Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 11:59 am Post subject: Bubble 45man SNG. ICM fold?

ICM fold here or get it in? This guy has been raising alot, but we know I'm ahead of his range, that's not even a question. 7 left top 6 pay.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 26 Tournament, 250/500 Blinds (7 handed) - Converter Tool from

MP1 (t8495)
MP2 (t13690)
Hero (CO) (t7550)
Button (t4590)
SB (t9640)
BB (t16745)
UTG (t6790)

Hero's M: 10.07

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q

, Q

1 fold, MP1 bets t1234, MP2 raises to t13690 (All-In), Hero ???

francois8 · Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:25 pm Post subject:

I can't find the fold button in this spot... but that's probably wrong.

Pokergal812 · Full House Joined: 07 Mar 2008 Posts: 153 Location: Jersey

Oh CRAP this is a tough one. I am very interested to see the responses, my first instinct would be to go but without knowing what MP1 is going to do... I don't want to be in a 3 way pot and if this guy takes out MP1... we're in the money... you don't have a dime in this pot yet...

Now of course, on the other hand -- you are shortish and some would argue it's not about making it to the money, it's about winning the whole thing -- in this case this is a great opportunity for all those chips!

I think I could make a good argument in either direction... I think I'm folding but it's probably why I make tiny strides in my bank roll instead of bigger ones.

I am very interested in the replies on this one!

cardfish2 · Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:32 pm Post subject:

Is he raising a lot with A/K rag or just ATC? If you have a good chance at having an overpair it might change my answer.

Actually, it wouldn't. I'd say who cares about ICM and call it.

craigo6x · Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:50 pm Post subject:

One of the magazines this month or last (Cardplayer or bluff) had this exact scenario and said it was an ICM fold.

francois8 · Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:56 pm Post subject:

Honestly, the more correct concern imho is what the initial raiser will do... We're ahead of all in guy's range, but if the first raiser is like super tight and likely has a range of JJ+/AK here, then I think I just throw up here.

Most people are opening wider than that, and if both people are normal-ish, opening / raising often, then I stick it in and assume that first raiser will fold a large % of the time here. If I'm that first raiser, and I raise then there's a 3-bet shove and overcall, I'm honestly only making a call with KK or AA... and I'm not even that happy about KK there tbh.

FYI, this is why I don't play 45 mans very often. I prefer tournies when the bubble is at like 15-20 tables left... I can raise and watch others comfortably fold their way into the money. When I get to these type decisions its at the FT bubble with 10 left, everyone usually have more in relation to the blinds and its a different game.

JJsell · Full House Joined: 30 Jul 2009 Posts: 157

like fran said the opening raiser can only call here with KK/AA and i think his opening range is likely to be a little wider than JJ+ and AK here. But im not sure. I do reasonably well at the $11 level in these but im pretty sure you play higher than that, but at the $11 level this is a snapcall because MP1 is normally raising with 88+ and AQ+. Im not sure about here though i might just be trying to argue this because i dont think i can ever find a fold here.

lovebeefstew · Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 1:11 pm Post subject:

I haven't got the stats on MP1 but I believed he was certainly raising light enough to make this an easy fold for him unless he has the really high side of his range.

lovebeefstew · Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 1:14 pm Post subject:

JDizzzle72 · Message Board Junkie Joined: 01 Mar 2008 Posts: 5139

i call. JJ i fold. not saying its the right thing to do, just what i do. and if i have 15k with 6 left, im win the vast majority of the time.

WHO mp2 is would have a lot to do with this too. the better he is, the faster i call.

lurgertor · Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 1:38 pm Post subject:

If there was a super short stack I might say fold, but not with the stacks these players have.

lovebeefstew · Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:45 pm Post subject:

I called, MP2 folded and villain showed AK. I lost the flip. Too be honest I didn't really think about it at the time. I knew I was ahead of villains range so called. But soon thought maybe I could fold there. Meh.

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