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francois8 Message Board Junkie
Joined: 10 Jun 2008 Posts: 3925 Location: getting bent over the bubble
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Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:31 pm Post subject: |
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I see nothing wrong with flatting really. Its 315 to call with 630 in there... if UTG + 2 comes along there will be 945 in there + our 315. Players are loose enough early in these, I see no problem flatting to see a flop with what are likely 3-1 pot odds considering that we should flop an A or a K about 1 time in 3. If we miss flop, we've got 2655 chips here which is fine with me to go for having ~5k-6k if we hit hand.
I'm putting the re-raiser on an ace worse than ours (if he sucks) or more likely a PP somewhere in the 99-QQ range. KK-AA are of course possible, but we do have one of each of these so make them slightly less likely. Also your average player at these stakes would never make a 4.5x reraise with AA, this larger reraise is just screaming JJ to me... jacks are usually best before a flop but they really suck to play post flop, so an average player at these stakes would be happy to have you 4-bet it so he can 5-bet shove here.
I'm fine taking a flop with the actual odds and considering that most players will make a CB with the hands I believe to be their range on any flop here, so we can probably get a check raise in if we hit the flop, making our implied odds pretty even better. I'll take the A on the flop obviously, but I'd really like to see a king hit... ace is more likely to shut down the action. If I hit the A or K on this flop, or 4 to either of our suits for a flush draw, I look to get it in on the flop and maybe go broke with it. |
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