Online Poker Forum - Would a river shove be reasonable as part of my value range in eyes of villain.

nolan6

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
-

SB: $25.17
BB: $27.56
UTG: $41.22
MP: $34.28
CO: $56.93
Hero (BTN): $26.82

Pre-Flop: 6 Heart

6

dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, CO raises to $0.85, Hero raises to $2.75, 2 folds, CO calls $1.90

Flop: ($5.85) 3 Club

J

3

(2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3, CO calls $3

Turn: ($11.85) 2 Diamond

(2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $4.25, CO calls $4.25

River: ($20.35) 5 Club

(2 Players)
CO checks, Hero

Villain was 36/29 over 43 hands... 73% cbet....2aagfactor over 55 hands.

I think my sizing on the turn is a bit too small i think 5-6$ would've been more appropriate. I was obv doing it as a bluff to his mid pocket pairs and JX hands, whilst still getting value from flush draws, because if i check the turn and a blank falls, im hard pressed to call if he bluffs as a missed draw, and his value range for betting widens a little bit here.

Would i realistically shove AK suited here or AA KK QQ here, im not sure if these hands are the vast majority of my range or not.

How often would a shove have to work to be profitable also please?

rich99cook · Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2009 3:41 pm Post subject:

After he called your flop bet, I would have checked or folded on the turn and river, because of the speed in which he called your bet on the flop - seemed a bit suspicious to me. (I did rail this hand lol)

Riddim · Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2009 3:57 pm Post subject:

Yeah it looks like you could have a big pair but it also looks like he doesn't want to fold. I dislike every previous street fwiw, with the possible exception of the flop.

nolan6 · Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2009 4:56 pm Post subject:

would u flat pre? i would quite often, i just thought he'll have to fold a lot of his hands so i know im kinda turning my hand into a bluff here, when its an easy hand to just flat call.

the flop bet felt like it didnt need to be huge as he anything he'll fold should be folding no matter what size of bet.

would you check the turn and give it up? i mean, i want to keep my range wide here so by betting the turn (granted it should be more) but after i bet the turn to keep my range JJ QQ KK AA AcKc, should i shove this river everytime? Or else theres no point betting the turn in the first place? Or is bet turn bigger, then give up ever an option?

I think i probably need more history and more of read to know for sure what the best line is.

lurgertor · Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:38 pm Post subject:

I'm not a mid stakes player, but I'm wondering if a midstakes player would really value shove an over pair on this board. I suppose it could be a thin value bet against a jack, but I'm not sure what other hand would call a shove there though.

drtre1987 · Forum Farmacist Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 3216

yeah, i don't like 2 barrelling here and definately not 3 barrels either. people like this seem to hate folding. and i don't like pf unless you have a better read on him. when you don't have a good read, you'll end up in spots like this where you are aimlessly bluffing and unsure about his range and whether or not he'll fold.

nolan6 · Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2009 10:33 pm Post subject:

he had QQ, your right, i have no idea how he would react to a shove.

G Goddard · Four of a Kind Joined: 05 Aug 2009 Posts: 279

When he calls you OTT I feel his range is AJ at the very worst and I just give up the river because he never has an intention on folding.

adam27x · Posted: Sun Nov 01, 2009 12:35 pm Post subject:

nolan6 · Posted: Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:05 pm Post subject:

adam27x · Posted: Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:21 pm Post subject:

people just don't fold overpairs, if you don't have an overpair it's really difficult for you to have a better hand, and I don't really think you can assume that this guy can hand read well enough to know that your range is polarized to JJ+ or air. I mean if you had the nuts here and you knew he had an overpair, you'd bet huge here, right? That's because it'll be hard for him to fold it...and based on similar logic we shouldn't try to barrel him off of it.

I shouldn't say he'd snapcall it, I hate how everyone uses superlatives when talking strat and well, I just did it myself. But I think most players at this limit with these stats in this spot would have a hard time folding QQ here.

nolan6 · Posted: Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:30 pm Post subject:

Thanks for your input all, i think for me to 3 barrel here i need more of a read and more hands on him, an interesting spot for sure, i also think that i played the hand bad pre and on the turn (not too fussed with the flop sizing), but possibly the mistakes on those two streets could've been made right by shoving to take the pot, but i didnt wanna put more money in after bad money so i pussied out, kinda wish i could play it again and bet 12$ on river, and shove the river to see what happens. Shove would need to work 66% right, and i genuinely thought it needed to be a shove to work, but it would only work between 40-60% with my little ingo on him.

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