Online Poker Forum - 50nl - flop gutshot gets there OOP vs 71/21 facing serious aggression

adam27x

Villain is 71/21 over 42 hands. I'm thinking that he's never bluffing here as he continues to pot it. Is my flop call too marginal OOP? What's the best line to take for the rest of the hand?

Grabbed by
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($11.25)
Hero ($75.05)
UTG ($58.95)
UTG+1 ($51.60)
UTG+2 ($40)
MP1 ($166)
CO ($9.75)
BTN ($16.15)

Dealt to Hero 3 Spade

5

fold, fold, fold, MP1 calls $0.50, fold, BTN calls $0.50, fold, Hero checks

FLOP ($1.75) 3 Diamond

6

4

Hero checks, MP1 bets $2, BTN folds, Hero calls $2

TURN ($5.75) 3 Diamond

6

4

2

Hero checks, MP1 bets $5.75, Hero?

HuJwang · Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:49 am Post subject:

flop call seems super standard and i'd prob c/c turn as his pot is mostly 5x/air. if river is blank and he bets really small i might raise, but if he pots it againt i'd probably just flat. i'm prob not folding any rivers unless it's a bad card and he makes a big overbet

if you have some reason to believe he will pot and stack off with worse this deep in a limped pot then i c/r turn but i think that is a little optimistic.

why do you think he's never bluffing? is it because of his betsizing, or is there some sort of read you didn't mention?

fletch_smf · Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 5:32 am Post subject:

adam27x · Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 9:56 am Post subject:

I shouldn't say he's never bluffing, I just think that when he pots it again on this board he's bluffing much less frequently, sorry.

Ok well I called turn for the reasons you said, and well...things couldn't have gone worse:

Grabbed by
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($11.25)
Hero ($75.05)
UTG ($58.95)
UTG+1 ($51.60)
UTG+2 ($40)
MP1 ($166)
CO ($9.75)
BTN ($16.15)

Dealt to Hero 3 Spade

5

fold, fold, fold, MP1 calls $0.50, fold, BTN calls $0.50, fold, Hero checks

FLOP ($1.75) 3 Diamond

6

4

Hero checks, MP1 bets $2, BTN folds, Hero calls $2

TURN ($5.75) 3 Diamond

6

4

2

Hero checks, MP1 bets $5.75, Hero calls $5.75

RIVER ($17.25) 3 Diamond

6

4

2

5

Hero checks, MP1 bets $17.25, Hero punches a baby

templar rage · Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:01 pm Post subject:

Technically you have an OESD on the flop, and that makes a difference, to me anyways. I'm almost certainly peeling with a pair + OESD against this guy, but I may consider folding if it was actually a gutshot. I'm not really optimistic about your 2 pair outs though, as evidenced by the **** river. I'm probably just folding, since IMO punching a baby + folding > folding > calling > shoving.

HuJwang · Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2009 7:41 pm Post subject:

i call

punching a baby is probably -EV

adam27x · Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2009 8:52 pm Post subject:

nilgiri · Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2009 9:12 pm Post subject:

Seems to me that a guy playing 71/21 probably is taking this line with a lot more than 5x, including 2pairs, sets, and overpairs, not to mention random retarded bluffs.

vectorspace · Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2009 10:46 pm Post subject:

I think you played it fine. I would c/c every street as played to let him bluff worse and keep the pot small in the rare case that you're beat.

An alternate line I think I prefer would be to C/R the flop and barrell the turn. This guy looks like he'll be willing to put a lot of $$$ into the pot with a marginal hand. Technically, your hand is marginal as well, but you're likely a small favorite to almost anything he'll continue with.

HuJwang · Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2009 5:20 am Post subject:

gamblingparlour · Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2009 5:25 am Post subject:

This is a snap call for reasons HuJwang stated above. If they have the 7 they would be value betting the river.

ohsnapzbrah · Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2009 11:58 am Post subject:

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