Online Poker Forum - AK, on the bubble.....just muck??

alew22

This is a 180 man tourney. There's 20 left (18 pay) and im chillin in 3rd. I was in the middle of OWNING this table, I only had around 7K about 20 hands before this. The original raiser is the short-stack of the tournament, so i 3-bet my AK hoping to isolate because he was practially committed after he raised. However, i get 4-bet by chip-leader of the tourney and the OR folds......just take the hit and muck? its like 3K more into a 12K pot, but do i need to be messing so seriously with the chip leader on hte bubble like this?? I hadn't seen him 4-bet before.....

Poker Stars $4.00+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300/t600 Blinds + t50 - 6 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/346569
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: t16231 M = 13.53
MP: t4752 M = 3.96
Hero (CO): t19173 M = 15.98
BTN: t31672 M = 26.39
SB: t7820 M = 6.52
BB: t20408 M = 17.01

Pre Flop: (t1200) Hero is CO with Ad Kc
1 fold, MP raises to t1200, Hero raises to t3000, BTN raises to t6600, 3 folds, Hero ??

deadmeat82 · Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2009 12:33 pm Post subject:

I think this is really opponent specific here. If he's reraising a lot lately then he's probably taking advantage of the bubble closing in and it might be a good idea to reraise him here. If he's been the quiet type then you can probably put him on a pretty big hand and let this go.

Either way I don't think calling is an option here, depending on how he's been playing it's either a raise or fold imo. If he's playing marginal hands a lot then this could be your chance to start a big run for the FT.

NilesMonkey · Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2009 5:59 pm Post subject:

I don't have too much experience with ICM in an MTT setting, but I assume that your equity leakage is going to be huge should you shove into the chip leader this close to the money, especially with how short MP will be after this hand.

lovebeefstew · Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2009 3:08 am Post subject:

This seems like a pretty horrible spot which after sitting here for 10minutes, I still haven't come to a defined conclusion I am happy with. I like to shove pre against these shorties with AK/AQ types, but with the big stack behind us, seems a little spewy. To me, it seems like a good stop an go spot. But given the fact you still have a nice stack, i'd probably lean towards a fold but certainly not be happy about it.

MattVegasPwn · Message Board Junkie Joined: 15 Aug 2009 Posts: 1029

I'm folding and crying. Givin the fact that this is the only time you've seen him 4 bet, its pretty much a standard fold. You have no reason to beleive he is spaz 4 bet bluffing, and your not playing well vs his 4bet value range.
Fold
Move on to the next hand with a M of 14
Pwn the final table.

Easy game eh?

francois8 · Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2009 11:25 am Post subject:

I actually kinda like stop n go here. U r first after flop and can shove wide. If he has 88-jj lot of bad flopss for him.

alew22 · Posted: Sun Nov 01, 2009 10:06 pm Post subject:

Well, i ended up flatting cause i thought the odds were there....figured there was a chance he could have AK as well......flopped a K and shoved into him.....he insta-called with AA.......pretty disappointing

bleffo19 · Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 6:51 am Post subject:

sick spot. i would personally shove because i is the spewz - but that doesn't mean it's the right thing to do.

i fold.

the CL has cold 4-bet you - he's gotta have a hand. your hand doesn't play well against his range. simple as that. unless you have history that dictates that he spazzes alot, this is never air.
to back it up, the maths of ICM says this is a fold as well. you can pretty much coast into the money from here and then gamble it up to play for 1st.

still a pretty sick spot though.

SySteMAtiC72 · Three of a Kind Joined: 20 Nov 2006 Posts: 83

Sorry it didn't work out for you. TBH I would have isolated as you did but insta folded to the raise from the chip leader. No reason to risk it with a big draw hand even if the chip leader is playing loose. AK is the worst hand to have on the bubble and in late position, so many times we players think it's the nuts when we've been running hot.

lovebeefstew · Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:20 am Post subject:

SySteMAtiC72 · Three of a Kind Joined: 20 Nov 2006 Posts: 83

I've went bust enough times on/near the bubble with AK to know one should be cautious and not over value the hand.

cubbies760 · Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:13 am Post subject:

SySteMAtiC72 · Three of a Kind Joined: 20 Nov 2006 Posts: 83

Ok here we go... The normal idiots of the forum that take something said as literal. Like AK really is the worst hand to have... I surely hope you aren't this stupid in real life

francois8 · Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 3:36 pm Post subject:

lovebeefstew · Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:59 pm Post subject:

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