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dodge these Message Board Junkie
Joined: 21 Jun 2006 Posts: 1008 Location: undisclosed
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Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 3:02 pm Post subject: Deep Staked 1/2PLO at New Table Against Likely Fish |
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The avg pot was over 60bb's and I just bough in short as I did not yet know who the mark was... and it is actually possible there were some big setup hands leading to the huge pots with no real fish present. On my first orbit the following hand happened:
Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 Pot Limit Omaha Hi $0.30 Ante - 5 players -
The Official Hand History
Hero (CO): $100.60
BTN: $1408.20
SB: $423.35
BB: $542.95
UTG: $407.20
Pre Flop: ($4.50) Hero is CO with T Q J 6
1 fold, Hero raises to $8.50, 1 fold, SB raises to $15, 1 fold, Hero calls $6.50
Flop: ($33.50) 3 4 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($33.50) Q (2 players)
SB bets $16.75, Hero raises to $83.75, SB calls $67
River: ($201.00) 5 (2 players)
SB bets $201, Hero calls $1.55 all in
Final Pot: $204.10
Hero mucks T Q J 6
SB shows 7 8 Q A (a straight, Eight high)
SB wins $201.10
(Rake: $3.00)
The guy in question is running 60/50 after ten hands now, though he has not shown down anoter one so far. I have rebough full and did a qucik search for some of the other players and a couple are multitabling, while I have some stats on another and he seems like a relatively competant guy that hasn't done anything unusual. So I'm guessing the guy I lost the first pot to is indeed the maniac and he limps in now while I'm in the BB before the one guy I said I have a few more hands on raises the button:
Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 Pot Limit Omaha Hi $0.30 Ante - 5 players -
The Official Hand History
Hero (BB): $422.95
UTG: $1401.30
CO: $527.00
BTN: $524.95
SB: $400.40
Pre Flop: ($4.50) Hero is BB with 2 8 K J
CO calls $2, BTN raises to $10.20, 1 fold, Hero calls $8.20, CO calls $8.20
Flop: ($33.10) 7 9 3 (4 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $16.40, BTN calls $16.40, Hero calls $16.40
Turn: ($82.30) T (4 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $82, BTN folds...
I think I should try to get it in here, but if I c/r and he just calls I still have close to a third of a buyin left, so what do I do if he just pushed like he did on previous hand if the board pairs or flushes? Can I ever let go of it at that point? If no should I be trying to control the pot a bit more and go for less than a pot bet which may actually make it more likely to get a call from weaker holding such as 2 pair.
Then again, based on the previous hand where gratend we were much shallower, he is likely to call with a very wide range of draws and I'm missing a lot of value by not potting here. Also, should I ever consider that I may actually be getting freerolled here? Is even flatting and evaluating my options based on the river ever a good option in this spot? |
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francois8 Message Board Junkie
Joined: 10 Jun 2008 Posts: 1930 Location: Conshohocken, PA
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Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 10:17 am Post subject: |
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Dude, you've gotta shove this second hand now or else you shouldn't have played it at all imo. You temporarily have the nuts, and with only card to go there are so many cards on the river that are awful for you.
I don't see how you can do anything other than shove it in now. I make it that if you shove here, you'll have about $65 left behind... your bet would be ~330 ish... And for me that last $65 going into the pot too regardless of the river card since you'll be getting something like 11-1 odds at that point. |
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drtre1987 Forum Farmacist
Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 2933
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Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2009 11:19 am Post subject: |
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i don't get the call pf. you have a 2 as a dangler. your flushes you'll hit will be the 2nd nuts with the KJ and to an 8 high flush. you'll flop gut shots or two pairs, which will likely have little equity if played back against since flopping two pair will so often put a ton of straight draws out there. and on top of how crappy our hand flops, we are OOP and pretty deep.
OTF, sure we are getting good odds, but we are drawing OOP to a 3 out gut shot (since the Ts will surely give one of these opponents a flush). our backdoor outs include an 8 high flush draw, which will be something you'll want to just get to showdown with, without putting too much money in.
OTT, jam. if he has a set, FD, or anything, you don't want him to realize his equity. on top of that, i can't see him putting half his stack in and folding with whatever he has and his range is likely to be wider than just the nuts here. |
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