Online Poker Forum - AJs facing flop raise on A board (50nl)

dcdoorknob

Button is 19/12 but only 25 hands on him. MP had just sat and posted .50 so I raised 4bb instead of 3bb.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Converter Tool from

Hero (UTG) ($78.30)
MP ($10)
Button ($51.65)
SB ($15.05)
BB ($29.35)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J

, A

Hero bets $2, 1 fold, Button calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($5.25) 8

, A

, 9

(2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, Button raises $10, Hero ???

conanav · Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2009 6:56 pm Post subject:

I would fold, fairly quickly too I think. My reasons are:

1) You are OOP
2) If you call his raise, there really is no good card for you to come OTT that would make you feel comfortable enough to ship it first to prevent the villain just checking the turn.
3)If you reraise, it is very very unlikely he is going to fold. VPIP = 19 suggest a lot of drawing hands including 89, 7T etc, and given his raise on the flop I think he might feel comfortable getting it in with those kinds of hands. And an OESD is the best possible hand you are going to be against, except for maybe AT
4) The board is pretty wet, and if he has a set, he might be just as scared of the next card as you are, so his raise on the flop could even make sense for a set.
5) You are OOP

This is the range I used for PS, I think this is as wide as he might play it. Given his fairly tight %PFR stats I don't see him raising your bet on the flop with absolutely nothing hoping you have a PP and are scared of the Ace. As you can see, you are in a pretty bad shape. We can even discard 89o I think, but it still is around 45-55.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

42,570 games 0.005 secs 8,514,000 games/sec

Board: Ah 9h 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.040% 37.02% 05.02% 15758 2138.50 { AsJs }
Hand 1: 57.960% 52.94% 05.02% 22535 2138.50 { 99-88, KhQh, QcJc, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Jh9h, Th8h, Th7h, 98s, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, AQo-ATo, 98o }

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