Online Poker Forum - Bubble-licious: Short stacked vs. SB PF raiser

NilesMonkey

Villain has been playing very tight. Last major action, he knocked out a player by raising the same amount PF, then calling a shove: AKs > TT. A few PF raises from this guy since then, but he's been very quiet.

Do I shove here, or flat call to be cautious and see a flop? Or do I just let it go and plan to shove ATC on the other shorty?

Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold'em Tournament, 50/100 Blinds, 4 Players
-

BTN: 7,510
SB: 3,125
Hero (BB): 1,195
UTG: 1,670

Pre-Flop: (150) Q Club

T

dealt to Hero (BB)
2 folds, SB raises to 250, Hero ??

tracysanders · Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2009 2:26 pm Post subject:

I like the let it go plan, but I seriously doubt the big stacks are gonna let you get B vs B against other shorty

Danduy · Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2009 3:01 pm Post subject:

Shoving would force him of a mediocre hand and if he calls and doesn't have you dominated, you still have a shot to double up. The pot is already a big chunk of your stack.

Folding would leave you with still + 10 BB and give a chache to steal if the big stack and small stack are rather timid and tight and no loose callers.

If you can easy steal from the players behind you i would say fold, if not, i take the chance and shove against him.

But bubble play and aggressive play is the best combination. He knows you have seen the hand where he kicked a player out, so he will use that fear when it's still fresh in your mind.

I would prefer calling if you stack was shorter. Then you can just call and shove the rest postflop. But now, you need the chips you still have.

dcdoorknob · Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2009 3:04 pm Post subject:

You really shouldn't have any fold equity at all assuming villain is decent, so I'd have to think I'm crushing his range to continue on the bubble here (by shoving), and I don't see how you can be given the read and hand. Fold.

Also I think you'd do well to just eliminate flatting a preflop raise as an option in your mind with under 12BBs.

Danduy · Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2009 3:25 pm Post subject:

I must also say that this a very difficult situation. Your stack is the smallest and quite vurnerable (or something) and like said the player is decent.

QTo is a better then avarage hand in a 4 handed game, but not a great one. In this situations i just like these phrases:

- If the blinds are low and you're in doubt: fold
- If the blinds are high and you're in doubt: bet or raise

NilesMonkey · Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2009 5:40 pm Post subject:

So, for this situation:

Fold > Shove >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Call

Right?

Big Slick x13x · Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2009 6:11 pm Post subject:

fold >>> shove >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> call

if he's been that tight no need to play here when he makes a standard size raise. If he was actually a good play not just a tight player he'd be shoving into you not raising. I think it's more likely he just found a good hand in the sb.

dcdoorknob · Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2009 6:49 pm Post subject:

I think both calling and shoving are bad, I'm not really sure which is worse honestly. Unless you have reason to believe you have fold equity on a shove (you shoulnd't), I'm pretty sure ICM would tell you to fold even if you thought SB's range was any two cards.

NilesMonkey · Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2009 7:08 pm Post subject:

dcdoorknob · Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2009 7:22 pm Post subject:

NilesMonkey · Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2009 4:39 pm Post subject:

Yeah, you're right. Sometimes I forget to take effective stack sizes into account.

Still, I think the PF call was a much bigger mistake than my failure to shove all-in was.

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