Online Poker Forum - QQ in this situation/guess it's kind of math-y...

Pokergal812 · Full House Joined: 07 Mar 2008 Posts: 153 Location: Jersey

Please don't laugh at my stupid questions... I'm really working at trying to improving my game...

Sorry, I didn't save the hand history I will try to remember to do that next time...

But, what do you do with a shortish/med. stack during a SNG and you get QQ

You raise UTG (the table was loose so I raised 4 times bb), BB calls

You have something like QhQS

and the flop is 3 low-ish diamonds... (I think like 2, 4, 6) -- something that could possibly make a weird baby straight...

BB just pushes all in... BB is kind of loose / plays anything. He has me covered. (Assuming he's paying attention to table image) I have a tight image, so my gut tells me he's trying to bully me off the hand.

I am putting him on a draw -- I don't think he's flopped the flush or the straight... I think I still have the best hand.

I call. WE flip cards. He actually has a better hand than I thought... JhJd but I'm still ahead.

- a fourth diamond drops on the turn and I'm a goner...

So here's the basic question... Is it always correct to get your money in "good" or was there (not knowing his cards) way too many scary cards to come that could improve him and bust me... and I should just lay this one down?

I suppose the situation might change depending how big my stack is, and if one of my queens was a diamond. If one of my queens is a diamond, I think there's way less to think about here. Sure, he could have Kd or Ad and any other card - and I'm in trouble... but I'm still getting in ahead at this point.

Again, sorry I didn't save the hand history... If I don't make this call, I'd be pretty short... I want to say there's 6 people still left, the blinds are 50/100 and I'd have about 700/800 left. The pot had something like 900 pre flop and then he put me all in... so I would assume we would be looking at a pot of around 1700 before I call and put my chips in.

*I think I'm getting the right odds... but this is where my math gets confused...

Of course, if my hand holds up and he doesn't have the Jd in hand, this is a great call! lol Wink

AND while we are on the subject... What if everything remains the same and you are on the money bubble at a big tournament, say in a MTT -- does your decisions in this same situation, with the same type of player, remain the same or different?

Do you shove your stack preflop, just hoping to (at least) pick up the blinds and antes (at best get a weaker hand to call)... do you min raise, hoping to "just pick up blinds and antes" but can get away if you get a caller and a scary flop hits - so you can fold and still possibly make it to money?

TIA for your thoughts.

Pokergal812 · Full House Joined: 07 Mar 2008 Posts: 153 Location: Jersey

didn't realize this was the longest post in history. If you've taken the time to read it, thank you!

DonkSupreme · Taking a Timeout Joined: 11 Sep 2009 Posts: 612

I would commit preflop with QQ with a shortstack, if not shoving, I am betting 1/3 to 1/2 my stack and getting it in on the flop regardless of what comes, but would prefer to get it in pre. With a medium stack you could be more conservative and raise big preflop, but not so much that you commit yourself and can still easily let it go when an ace or king hits the flop and you are being bet at.

You were probably ok to call the guys all-in on the diamond flop if you were short also, and probably even if you weren't short. Yes it is always right to get the money in good, unless the guy had a open ended straight draw, a flush draw, and/or overcards, you are the favorite to win and it pays off in the long run. This is even more true in cash games than tournaments

In the situation you mentioned where you had 8BB left, you are definitely calling the all-in.

You are never trying to just steal the blinds with QQ. Even if you are on the bubble with a shortstack I would still call an all-in or be willing to get the money in, if you don't, by the time you get in the money you will be so short from blinding away chips you probably won't go much farther in the tournament, yes, sometimes you will bust on the bubble but the times you double up and get into the money playing for the top prize will pay more dividends than blinding into the money.

bigpairde · Moderator Joined: 26 Apr 2008 Posts: 10100

your OP reminds me of mikah. way too much. couldn't read it, sry.

pls use HH in the future. you only need to set it up once in the lobby and then they will be saved.

Pokergal812 · Full House Joined: 07 Mar 2008 Posts: 153 Location: Jersey

Thanks Donk,

I considered pushing all in preflop, the only reason why I didn't was because I did want a little action and assumed a push of all in wouldn't net me anything. I would've been happier with a pre-flop re-raise - and then I could've gotten it all in pre flop, but it didn't go down quite that way.

I feel better about the call... it's OK that I lost, just trying to make the good decisions for the long term! I suspected it was the right move but sometimes you start to question yourself.

Pokergal812 · Full House Joined: 07 Mar 2008 Posts: 153 Location: Jersey

Goodnewsjonny · High Card Joined: 02 Oct 2009 Posts: 18

Hey Pokergal, good post. You played that hand completely correctly as far as maths is concerned. After the flop, even though he had a flush draw you were still a 57% favorite to win the hand (taking into account the possibility that he may also flop a set with his jacks. This possibility adds 7% to the expectation of his hand making him a 42% favorite to win). If he had straight draw (and no flush draw) with say 7s, 5s your an even bigger favorite to win as he will only make his straight 32% of the time and in such a situation you are winning the hand 63% of the time. Mathematically, you played the hand correctly.
Once you know your maths what you should be thinking isn't, 'What do I do now', it's 'What sort of questions should I be asking myself'. In a situation like this the questions you are asking are quite straightforward, 'Am I pot committed?', the answer here is no. Because you have position on your opponent he has been forced to bet first you can leave the hand having only made the preflop bet. 'Do I have enough chips to continue playing to a reasonably optimal standard?', Yes, let's say you had a 2000 chip stack before the flop and the blinds are 50/100, the original 4 times the BB bet has taken your stack down to 1600, with this stack your basically a low medium stack but can certainly still win the game. These questions are important but the most important question you should be asking is 'What cards does my opponent hold and of theses cards which possibilities am I most worried about?'. The cards your opponent has depends on whether or not he/she is a tight or a loose player, but in this particular situation you really are only afraid of a few hands. You lose to A,A and K,K, A,K with a diamond (this is basically a coin toss but the A,K with a diamond will win 51% of the time), any straight flush draw such as 7d,5s (which will win 56% of the time), and any set or two pair. You have to decide if your opponent is likely to hold any of these hands. Generally when a player goes all in against a flop like this he is protecting a good hand against a flush, if a player flopped a flush (a 1 out of 126 shot) he may try to get tricky. At this stage of the game players are calling less with speculative hands like suited connectors and connected cards, and would be very unlikely to play them against a four times the BB raise, so in a situation like this I wouldn't worry about any straight draws, and for this same reason (and because it is so unlikely) I wouldn't be worried that my opponent had flopped a flush. Given your opponents actions in this hand, a call OOP pre flop rather than a re raise as you would be inclined to do with KK or AA (knowing your opponent is likely to shove having shown strength with a big bet from under the gun) and a shove post flop, I would put him on low to medium pocket pair, the strongest (preflop) hand I'm giving him is jacks (which he had). I would be worried that he flopped a set and is protecting it against a flush draw, or he could have 88 or 99 and be shoving to get you off the hand. Against this type of opponent I would call, being most worried about a set, but given his range of calling hands, I think that medium pocket pair is most likely. The fact is you did the right thing and got a little unlucky, and I think that in this situation, calling an all in would probably be right most of the time.

Pokergal812 · Full House Joined: 07 Mar 2008 Posts: 153 Location: Jersey

thanks! That is goodnews, Goodnews, Johnny!

Goodnewsjonny · High Card Joined: 02 Oct 2009 Posts: 18

Also use this site, it's useful for live internet play, especially when checking your maths after a hand.

http://www.pokerlistings.com/online-poker-odds-calculator

Pokergal812 · Full House Joined: 07 Mar 2008 Posts: 153 Location: Jersey

this is a cool tool -- to use after a hand to figure out the math! Thanks. Going to bookmark it!

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