Online Poker Forum - Poker Math Wizz VS No folding players. LHE 0.25/0.50

IABoomer · Moderator Joined: 29 Oct 2006 Posts: 7351

How do you act before the SB?

nienie23 · Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 3:59 pm Post subject:

IABoomer · Moderator Joined: 29 Oct 2006 Posts: 7351

That hand looks pretty standard. I might consider not leading at the flop since your chances of pushing anyone off their draw are slim and leading only builds the pot and gives them better odds to chase. Plus, they did open-raise and call your three-bet, so they should have something better than 72o and you could be behind with your AKo.

WhatASurprise · Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 6:19 pm Post subject:

Don`t donk the flop. Otherwise, standard.

EV stands for Expected Value. It is a measurement for how much money you will win/lose on a given action over the long term. If the action taken is profitable, it is +EV, and if it is unprofitable, it is -EV.
Calculating EV can be done in several ways, depending on the situation. It is rather complicated, and you will not find it as valuable in limit as in NL. That is because you will have to count in bet sizes and implied odds to a higher degree.

nienie23 · Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 7:47 pm Post subject:

suicideblonde1 · Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 7:52 pm Post subject:

I apologise for the tone of my replies. I was tipsy and thought you were claiming to be a "math genius". Your posts are good, you're actually trying to get better. Sorry Heart

nienie23 · Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2009 12:07 am Post subject:

Pil Sung

nienie23

SmellsLikeDonk · Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2009 11:19 pm Post subject:

jrounds · High Card Joined: 20 Apr 2009 Posts: 4

Your analysis on 2 doesn't add up to me, though I only post to give the experts a chance to pick me apart.

"HAND #2 Any Mathwizz can explain to my opponent that he was dominated after my preflop raise? In order to be dominated, you have to know what it means. He was never dominated. He was just going for a flush and with 2 of his suit on the flop, he is there till river and will even bet it if he missed it, just in case. "

He was going for a draw but you gave him good pot odds to call.

So at the turn 2.60 was in so that means he needed 50 cents to call on the flop. .50/2.60 approximately 1/5 or 20%. He makes that flush more than 20% of the time, so he did the correct thing by calling if he didn't believe you were also trying to make it. You made a betting error by giving a flush draw a free river card after that. So even though we didn't factor in implied pot odds, it turned out we didn't need to because you were being soft on draws.

nienie23 · Posted: Sun Apr 26, 2009 3:26 pm Post subject:

DforDissent · Royal Flush Joined: 30 Mar 2009 Posts: 669

OP, you are correct that it seems lotsa folks play shorthanded limit as if they have never been exposed to the concept of "+EV hands".

But also keep in mind that with LIMIT holdem, when 6handed or less, often it isn't about the inherent hand strength, it's about POSITION, and the weakness/trickyness/readability of your opponents. I often see shorthanded LHE players who seem to consistently win and yet preflop they rarely fold -- almost always raising (or 3bet/cap!) -- but upon closer analysis I think most of these apparent-maniacs are just really good post-flop. They shut down quickly before investing too much if they have air and their opponent is "honest" and has just raised or check-raised them (for example).

So really, the problem is that the "win rate" of a hand is based on "all-in preflop" matchups, but since in LHE often the "-EV" hands are folded on a missed flop, they aren't quite so negative EV. ALSO those same bottom-rung hands have quite good implied odds due to their deceptive nature (i.e. J6o, flop comes JT6 and the preflop raiser with AJ or KJ fires the flop and the turn, and probably the river too thus allowing the guy with J6o to raise/chkraise somewhere along the way for mega-payoff).

Not saying "any two can win", but it seems like that is the case with these kind of maniacs -- short-term anyway (until the table figures out just how loose the maniac actually is, and notices the "honesty" of their post-flop play ... often the maniac will just LEAVE the table when it's clear the table is calling them down light and/or trapping thus reducing the risk/reward ratio too much).

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