| Author |
Message |
dodge these
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 21 Jun 2006
Posts: 1052
Location: undisclosed
|
 Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2009 7:13 am Post subject: Biggest Downswing Ever |
 |
|
I just went from crushing the games at 11BB/100H over about 18k hands to losing at the rate of 37BB/100H in the next 2500. That ammonts to a loss of about 25BI but as it was mostly 40Cap it ammont to almost 60 caps, and at one point had lost 24/25 of the biggest pots played. I have played about another 2500 and while the bleeding has stopped I am still just about breaking even being up just about a buyin over that span.
So I was wondering how does this rank in terms of some other downswings you have had or seen, and what do you typically do to regain your confidance and get back on a winning track. I know this can be a swingy game but this downturn has got me at a loss and my confidance is quite down, so I would appreciate any help, whether that is sharing your own nightmare runs or simply confidacne building advice. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
GoGetaRealJob
High Card
Joined: 20 Aug 2009
Posts: 6
|
| Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2009 3:04 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| I once lost 1k in one day, losing 50/75 caps at the 40cap tables. Was gambling a lot, and not playing too well, but the swings can really get huge at this level. Keep working on your game, see you at the tables, dude |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 9195
Location: Halifax, NS
|
| Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2009 4:54 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| 25bi downswings are going to happen routinely in plo. you can't treat plo and nlhe the same. i'd guess that you probably want about 1.5x the bankroll at PLO that you would want for NLHE at the same blinds. maybe more |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
drtre1987
Forum Farmacist
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 3217
|
| Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2009 6:51 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| it takes a lot more than 18K hand at PLO to see what your true win rate is. At NLHE, i'd say that you'd need at least 100K hands to get a fair idea of your winrate (which is still not that accurate), so that just tells you about how insignificant 18K hands is. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
dodge these
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 21 Jun 2006
Posts: 1052
Location: undisclosed
|
| Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2009 5:18 am Post subject: |
|
|
| GoGetaRealJob wrote: |
| I once lost 1k in one day, losing 50/75 caps at the 40cap tables. Was gambling a lot, and not playing too well, but the swings can really get huge at this level. Keep working on your game, see you at the tables, dude |
Yeah I get in gambling mode 2 when stuck and that was def part of the downswing... I'm posting a graph below where you can actually see a dip in EV during the downswing, but in PLO that is not as bad as NLHE, and you unless you push every hand just gamblling a bit more is no guarantee of losses.
| HuJwang wrote: |
| 25bi downswings are going to happen routinely in plo. you can't treat plo and nlhe the same. i'd guess that you probably want about 1.5x the bankroll at PLO that you would want for NLHE at the same blinds. maybe more |
Thankfully I was actually building to the point of taking shots at the next level, so while this has put those plans on hold I am still well rolled for this level and actually up a little on the month if factoring in bonuses and rakeback  I guess this downswing seems a lot worse than 25BI, which I wouldn't say is routine but can happen relatively often in PLO, becuase it was actually in the form of about 60 caps...
| drtre1987 wrote: |
| it takes a lot more than 18K hand at PLO to see what your true win rate is. At NLHE, i'd say that you'd need at least 100K hands to get a fair idea of your winrate (which is still not that accurate), so that just tells you about how insignificant 18K hands is. |
I'm not saying my 18k is a true winrate cause it is prety high, but I think that such a disparity between it and the next 2500 hands is a little more than just varriance revealing a true winrate. For the last 2500 hands since then I am running at 7ptbb/100h again, though I am actually running well, and prob still not playing all that well, but at this point I'll take it. Now below is a graph of all the hands I played at this level that shows my SB and actuall winnings, and you tell me if you think the 2500 hand stretch starting right around hand 20k is representative of my winnings, or if a graph without those 2500 hands would be more indicative of my true wirate? Regardless it still seems like a prety clear case of me running incredibly bad for a while and I was just looking for some tips on how to regain confidance after hitting such a downturn...
 |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
drtre1987
Forum Farmacist
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 3217
|
| Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2009 1:33 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| lol i just looked at your graph and thought your red line was a non showdown line for a second.....just looks like you are running bad. i was just saying don't think that that is your true winrate. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
dodge these
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 21 Jun 2006
Posts: 1052
Location: undisclosed
|
| Posted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 7:10 am Post subject: |
|
|
Well I posted how the whole month turned out in the August graphs thread linked below:
http://pokerforums.fulltiltpoker.com/online-poker-post-869218.html#869218
As it tunrs out my initial post in this thread was not my worst downswing...
Here are how the last 2 days went:
The samll bump right at the beggint brought me to breaking even as you can see from the graph thread linked above, but it was all downhill from there. A $2k/600h loss  followed by a prolonged 3000 hand tilt session resulting in 'only' another $500 loss that GGRJ was actually there for most of so he can give you some first hand insight on what it looked like from the prespective of someone else at the table if he is so inclined.
However, my massive initiall loss was playing non cap games, so I can actually post a 'nice' AI luck graph of how I ran aginst EV.
As you can see almost all of it is below EV and my expected losses include running nut boat into quads and second nuts with NFD into nuts for 2 of the biggest pots and a whole bunch of other such smaller setups.
Here's the probability of my running like this on all in hands:
As you can see the probability of this happening is well outside any scientific confidance interval. Then the following day on the 31st, I was still not able to recover any of my loses. I was back playing cap and as you can see my SB skyroketed to no avail with total winnings yoyoing in place again. And again, most of that long break even session is not even captured in my luck stats because very few caps actually get a player AI. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
francois8
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 10 Jun 2008
Posts: 3906
Location: getting bent over the bubble
|
| Posted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:45 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Please don't take the wrong way, but my advice would be to worry about what you can control and hope that the swings balance out in the long run. Specifically, it seems that once you got tilted, your EV dipped negative pretty substantially a couple of times. It also looks like most of the spread between EV and realized $ occurred early on in your session and the two lines followed each other pretty well after that.
Still it sucks to run bad, and I've tilted like this myself. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
dodge these
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 21 Jun 2006
Posts: 1052
Location: undisclosed
|
| Posted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 6:13 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| francois8 wrote: |
Please don't take the wrong way, but my advice would be to worry about what you can control and hope that the swings balance out in the long run. Specifically, it seems that once you got tilted, your EV dipped negative pretty substantially a couple of times. It also looks like most of the spread between EV and realized $ occurred early on in your session and the two lines followed each other pretty well after that.
Still it sucks to run bad, and I've tilted like this myself. |
Not offended at all... like i said I tillted and know it and am actually curious to get GGRJ's take on how it looked like as he was at teh tables for much of it. That said I know I am usually prone to tilt, but not untill I start running more than 10 buyins below EV (20 qualifies), so once that occured the fact that my EV woudl statr going down was also expected.
Really depdnding on how you want to break it down you could say there was a 1k drop in EV over 3k+ hands that corresponded to -$1k winnings. So I ran as I should  then after about hand 4k+ it is the next day and a new session. As you can see i was playing much better and my EV actually went up well over 1K but my winnings prety much just had wild up and down swings that result in no net change in my BR, so in that sense I ran well below EV again, but just had enough hands hold so that it was not a total freefall again that woudl make me tilt...
Truthfully by that point I think I was so depressed that I was expecting to lose every hand and just more or less shruged of the bad beats as blah... So while I actually eneded up the month just about breaking even with rakeback and bonuses, I decided to do a self ban from FTP for a month. I have just a few $$ on PokerStars and PartyPoker, where I plan to experiment a bit and see how I feel about my game before deciding whether to get back to grinding on FTP. Cause seriously another month like this where whenever I do tilt and get it in with -EV I run as expected like you noticed, but whenver I get it in good I run way below EV just makes me feel chity about myself even though it is no fault of my own, and certainly makes me not want to play... so then I just won't play |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
DforDissent
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 30 Mar 2009
Posts: 1249
Location: testing my theory that my "best game to 100% focus on" is HORSE mtts
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 15, 2009 4:42 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| francois8 wrote: |
Please don't take the wrong way, but my advice would be to worry about what you can control and hope that the swings balance out in the long run. Specifically, it seems that once you got tilted, your EV dipped negative pretty substantially a couple of times. It also looks like most of the spread between EV and realized $ occurred early on in your session and the two lines followed each other pretty well after that.
Still it sucks to run bad, and I've tilted like this myself. |
That reminds me, haven't an awful lot of the seasoned veterans said, basically, that programs like "PokerEV" and others that tell you what your "All-in EV" was (i.e. what "should have happened by the showdown") end up hurting your game? Don't they make you feel a sense of disappointment, frustration, entitlement that is now "owed" to you in the future (to "balance out the bad luck")???
Just something I remember hearing. I mean, someone can keep pushing those 55:45 edges and lose 10 times in a row no problem, while someone else might keep the pot small so they can fold a bunch of WA/WB situations until they have a much bigger edge in which to push their chips in -- either way you're gonna get felted if you are "unlucky", but if you do it more rarely, then the swings will be less damaging if you are "running bad", therefore due to it not happening nearly as often, you're less likely to go on tilt and misread situations (where you think you're 55% vs. his range but that's just your "entitlement" mindset talking).
Any thoughts? (sorry for the HJ, btw) |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
Powered by phpBB Copyright 2001, 2005 phpBB Group
|
FAQ
Search
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
