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adam27x
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Posts: 4964
Location: New York/New Jersey
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 Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 10:39 pm Post subject: 25nl - AK OOP, 4bet pot, whiff, best line? |
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Villain is 56/22/3.2 over 26 hands, and this was his first 3bet.
If his range is still wide here (do you think it is?) then this is a really bad flop for my hand. That said, is simply c/f'ing here in a 4bet pot bad? If I 3bet AK from the blinds or something vs a really loose player I'm usually ok with c/f'ing these types of boards because it hits their range so hard. Should the fact that this is a 4bet pot change my strategy? Should I not 4bet in the first place?
Should I just blindly cbet/fold it? He has about $15 left OTF, so cbet/folding seems even more gross since the size of my bet will often give me a good price to call.
If his range is actually reasonably tight since it is a 4bet pot (again, I'm not sure if it is...) then won't betting fold out worse hands and get shoved on by better?
bleh..
Grabbed by
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
SB ($14.16)
BB ($5.50)
UTG ($25.35)
UTG+1 ($6.98)
Hero ($35.32)
MP1 ($42.38)
MP2 ($23.90)
CO ($29.08)
BTN ($21.03)
Dealt to Hero K A
fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.85, fold, fold, omGikisseDagirL calls $0.85, BTN raises to $2, fold, fold, Hero raises to $6.30, fold, BTN calls $4.30,
FLOP ($13.80) 95 8
Hero? |
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Aelfinn
Four of a Kind
Joined: 16 Sep 2008
Posts: 313
Location: South Dakota
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| Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 10:47 pm Post subject: |
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I think you need to ignore his stats a little bit as it is such a small sample size. Given that he 3bet after the initial raise was already called tells me that he probably has a big hand. I don't think many 25NL players 4 bet here with nothing. With this being said I really don't like your pf 4 bet, I think I would have just flatted and re-evaluated on the flop.
As played I would be check folding here. I can't imagine him showing up with anything you can beat here. He might have AK, but far more often he will have JJ+. |
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Moshiach
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
Posts: 4550
Location: Vic, Australia
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| Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 11:49 pm Post subject: |
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I'll do the maths when I get home, but I think shoving is ok.
edit: off the top of my head, we have about 20-25% equity against his calling range, so he doesn't need to fold that often for this to be profitable. |
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Moshiach
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
Posts: 4550
Location: Vic, Australia
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| Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 12:26 am Post subject: |
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| He needs to fold 23.7% of the time for this to break even against a calling range of just QQ, JJ, and he folds way more than that imo, shove. |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 9190
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 1:02 am Post subject: |
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you can never cbet/fold this with how little money is left behind, particularly with the A. id just either jam or bet something stupid like $6 and call a shove. both approaches have pros and cons (jamming doesn't give him an opportunity to bluffshove, while betting small could suck if he just flats it and a really bad turn comes).
i think at 25nl i'm a little more partial to just jamming than i would be at 200nl, because people tend to be more passive so inducing bluffshoves just isn't as good an idea. plus you will still usually get called by some hands you beat like AQ-AT and draws.
check/folding is a little too weak considering how many random broadway and Ax hands he can have that you are well ahead of. |
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Aelfinn
Four of a Kind
Joined: 16 Sep 2008
Posts: 313
Location: South Dakota
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| Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 10:57 am Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
| check/folding is a little too weak considering how many random broadway and Ax hands he can have that you are well ahead of. |
Do you really think vilian would be 4 betting here with KQ or Ax? I don't play a lot of ring games, but in my experience at 25NL there are not many 4 bets, or even 3 bets with these types of hands. |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 9190
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 1:30 pm Post subject: |
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| Aelfinn wrote: |
| HuJwang wrote: |
| check/folding is a little too weak considering how many random broadway and Ax hands he can have that you are well ahead of. |
Do you really think vilian would be 4 betting here with KQ or Ax? I don't play a lot of ring games, but in my experience at 25NL there are not many 4 bets, or even 3 bets with these types of hands. |
the villain didn't 4bet, he 3bet. and while i agree that most villains at 25NL full ring don't 3bet a lot, the villain in OP is described as being very loose so i would expect KQ and Ax to be in his 3betting range. while i'm not happy about shoving in and getting called, the fact is we only have a pot-sized bet remaining in our stack, so i just don't see folding being a viable option here. if he has us crushed (KK-AA or flopped set) then so be it, but against TT-QQ we have 6 outs and a backdoor flush draw giving us close to 30% equity, and there are a number of hands we are still ahead of. |
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Aelfinn
Four of a Kind
Joined: 16 Sep 2008
Posts: 313
Location: South Dakota
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| Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 1:43 pm Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
| Aelfinn wrote: |
| HuJwang wrote: |
| check/folding is a little too weak considering how many random broadway and Ax hands he can have that you are well ahead of. |
Do you really think vilian would be 4 betting here with KQ or Ax? I don't play a lot of ring games, but in my experience at 25NL there are not many 4 bets, or even 3 bets with these types of hands. |
the villain didn't 4bet, he 3bet. and while i agree that most villains at 25NL full ring don't 3bet a lot, the villain in OP is described as being very loose so i would expect KQ and Ax to be in his 3betting range. while i'm not happy about shoving in and getting called, the fact is we only have a pot-sized bet remaining in our stack, so i just don't see folding being a viable option here. if he has us crushed (KK-AA or flopped set) then so be it, but against TT-QQ we have 6 outs and a backdoor flush draw giving us close to 30% equity, and there are a number of hands we are still ahead of. |
Villians stats are for a very minimal sample so we don't know how loose he is. OP also stated that this is the first time he has 3 bet so that may be an indication that he is not an extremely loose player.
We only have $6.30 invested in this pot right now. The total pot, if my math is corect, is $13.80. We have $29.02 left in our stack, significantly more than a pot sized bet. Villian has roughly a pot sized bet left. Even if we are only against TT-QQ thus putting us at 30% we are only getting 2 to 1 on our money when we are a 2.5 to 1 dog. If we are against AA or KK we are way behind. I don't personally see us being against anything else often enough to make this profitable.
Personally I would flatted the 3 bet preflop. This would have made the pot smaller on the flop and left us with more optiions. |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 10514
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 2:11 pm Post subject: |
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| Basically what HuJwang said. |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 9190
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 2:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Aelfinn wrote: |
| HuJwang wrote: |
| Aelfinn wrote: |
| HuJwang wrote: |
| check/folding is a little too weak considering how many random broadway and Ax hands he can have that you are well ahead of. |
Do you really think vilian would be 4 betting here with KQ or Ax? I don't play a lot of ring games, but in my experience at 25NL there are not many 4 bets, or even 3 bets with these types of hands. |
the villain didn't 4bet, he 3bet. and while i agree that most villains at 25NL full ring don't 3bet a lot, the villain in OP is described as being very loose so i would expect KQ and Ax to be in his 3betting range. while i'm not happy about shoving in and getting called, the fact is we only have a pot-sized bet remaining in our stack, so i just don't see folding being a viable option here. if he has us crushed (KK-AA or flopped set) then so be it, but against TT-QQ we have 6 outs and a backdoor flush draw giving us close to 30% equity, and there are a number of hands we are still ahead of. |
Villians stats are for a very minimal sample so we don't know how loose he is. OP also stated that this is the first time he has 3 bet so that may be an indication that he is not an extremely loose player.
We only have $6.30 invested in this pot right now. The total pot, if my math is corect, is $13.80. We have $29.02 left in our stack, significantly more than a pot sized bet. Villian has roughly a pot sized bet left. Even if we are only against TT-QQ thus putting us at 30% we are only getting 2 to 1 on our money when we are a 2.5 to 1 dog. If we are against AA or KK we are way behind. I don't personally see us being against anything else often enough to make this profitable.
Personally I would flatted the 3 bet preflop. This would have made the pot smaller on the flop and left us with more optiions. |
26 hands may not be a huge sample, but it is enough to tell that he is loose when he plays over 50% of those hands. how often have you sat down and received 13 or 14 premium hands in your first 26? not often. so, it's very unlikely that this is a tight player. also, the fact he reraised only to $2 over an $0.85 raise suggests to me that he doesn't really know what he is doing.
even if he is a tight player, i don't know why you would assume his range is composed only of TT-AA. a tight player will still have AK here and maybe AQ as well. against a range of TT-AA and AK, we have 31% equity which is almost enough to get it in here. if our shove gets him to fold AK, that's even better. |
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Aelfinn
Four of a Kind
Joined: 16 Sep 2008
Posts: 313
Location: South Dakota
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| Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 3:07 pm Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
| Aelfinn wrote: |
| HuJwang wrote: |
| Aelfinn wrote: |
| HuJwang wrote: |
| check/folding is a little too weak considering how many random broadway and Ax hands he can have that you are well ahead of. |
Do you really think vilian would be 4 betting here with KQ or Ax? I don't play a lot of ring games, but in my experience at 25NL there are not many 4 bets, or even 3 bets with these types of hands. |
the villain didn't 4bet, he 3bet. and while i agree that most villains at 25NL full ring don't 3bet a lot, the villain in OP is described as being very loose so i would expect KQ and Ax to be in his 3betting range. while i'm not happy about shoving in and getting called, the fact is we only have a pot-sized bet remaining in our stack, so i just don't see folding being a viable option here. if he has us crushed (KK-AA or flopped set) then so be it, but against TT-QQ we have 6 outs and a backdoor flush draw giving us close to 30% equity, and there are a number of hands we are still ahead of. |
Villians stats are for a very minimal sample so we don't know how loose he is. OP also stated that this is the first time he has 3 bet so that may be an indication that he is not an extremely loose player.
We only have $6.30 invested in this pot right now. The total pot, if my math is corect, is $13.80. We have $29.02 left in our stack, significantly more than a pot sized bet. Villian has roughly a pot sized bet left. Even if we are only against TT-QQ thus putting us at 30% we are only getting 2 to 1 on our money when we are a 2.5 to 1 dog. If we are against AA or KK we are way behind. I don't personally see us being against anything else often enough to make this profitable.
Personally I would flatted the 3 bet preflop. This would have made the pot smaller on the flop and left us with more optiions. |
26 hands may not be a huge sample, but it is enough to tell that he is loose when he plays over 50% of those hands. how often have you sat down and received 13 or 14 premium hands in your first 26? not often. so, it's very unlikely that this is a tight player. also, the fact he reraised only to $2 over an $0.85 raise suggests to me that he doesn't really know what he is doing.
even if he is a tight player, i don't know why you would assume his range is composed only of TT-AA. a tight player will still have AK here and maybe AQ as well. against a range of TT-AA and AK, we have 31% equity which is almost enough to get it in here. if our shove gets him to fold AK, that's even better. |
Villian has in fact played over 50% of the hands so far, but villian has only raised 22% which equals 6 hands over the 26 hand sample. Its not uncommon to get 6 premium hands over 26.
As far as have 31% equity, I agree that 31% is almost enough to get it in here, but not quite enough for me peronally.
I don't think 3 betting and calling the shove is a horrible play here. But peronsally I think letting this one go is a better play. To each there own I guess. |
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AllInDrawinDead
Poker Nerd
Joined: 22 Sep 2005
Posts: 2821
Location: crushing LHE
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| Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:13 am Post subject: |
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| You showed all that strength PF so why slow down now? I say ship it as your continuation bet. |
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adam27x
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Posts: 4964
Location: New York/New Jersey
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| Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2009 9:54 am Post subject: |
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I think that getting called here by AT-AQ here is pretty optimisitic. I mean sure, villain is really bad, but is he gonna call his stack off with A-high? I actually checked, planning to c/f to a big bet. He bet like $3 so I just shoved over it thinking that I could have some fold equity, or that I could even be ahead some of the time. He called with JJ and I felt like I kinda spewed. I would be lying if I would say that thought wasn't at least partially results oriented, though.
One spot I'm always disgusted by is getting 3bet when I open AK somewhere OOP. I never want to flat and play a pot OOP without the initiative, but OTOH AK doesn't do so hot against the 3betting ranges of a lot of players at 25nl so 4betting and folding to a 5bet is pretty gross as well. Is this an automatic 4bet? If not, can someone come up with an example where I should and another where I should not 4bet this spot? |
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nilgiri
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Joined: 11 Jan 2007
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Location: Massachusetts
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| Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:41 am Post subject: |
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| adam27x wrote: |
| I think that getting called here by AT-AQ here is pretty optimisitic. I mean sure, villain is really bad, but is he gonna call his stack off with A-high? |
If you always get called by TT+ and always fold out AJ+ then the math works out to:
6*3 combos of TT-QQ + 3*2 combos of KK-AA = 24 combos that call
12*2 combos of AJ-AQ + 9 combos of AK = 33 combos that fold
24/(24+33) = 42.1% call (so 57.9% fold)
Equity vs. TT+ = 23.56%
$43.26 (pot if you both are AI) * .421 * .2356 (when he calls and you win)
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$14.73 (left to call) *.421 * .7644 (when he calls and you lose)
+
$13.80 (pot on flop) * .579 (when he folds)
=
$7.54 EV if you shove.
EDIT: I might have messed up the math. I think it is actually:
$43.26 * .2356 - $14.73 (EV when he calls) * .421
+
$13.80 * .579
=
$6.08 EV if you shove
Obviously the idea is the same, though.
The thing is, you almost have the odds to get it in vs. any PP. So he rarely ever has to fold for it to be +EV to shove. And whether he is folding worse or not does not even matter.
I think unless you have a read that he is shoving random crap a lot here vs. a small bet, I'd always shove and let him make the mistake of folding 33 or AK or whatever. I think most people flatting 4bets like that will make a bad fold here more often than they will be induced to make a bad shove.
Last edited by nilgiri on Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:49 am; edited 1 time in total |
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nilgiri
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
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Location: Massachusetts
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| Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:45 am Post subject: |
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| Aelfinn wrote: |
| As far as have 31% equity, I agree that 31% is almost enough to get it in here, but not quite enough for me peronally. |
"Almost" means that he rarely has to fold for it to be +EV. Hu's point (I think) is not that it's almost +EV, so that's a good reason to shove (which btw makes no sense); it's that it's almost +EV when he calls. Given that he's folding some not-insignificant percent of the time, it now becomes +EV to shove.
Also, I'm really unclear what your personal preference has to do with this... |
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