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alex j beeson
Luckbox Boy
Joined: 15 Jul 2007
Posts: 3188
Location: Riding the Rakeback gravy train
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 Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2009 5:53 pm Post subject: |
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| gonefshng wrote: |
| Still doesn't explain what "keep betting" meant. I took that to mean, bet every street. It's not unusal for 1 card to make a big difference tho. I don't feel that folding to a bet here is a big mistake either. I have about 800 chips left and if seat 5 bets 6th, I'm pretty sure I'll be facing another bet on 7th, whether he improves or not. |
That 6th street card, for you and seat 5, did change things. He could have a made 8 drawing to a 6. If he hits his 6 you are dead. If he only has an 8 you still have outs (about 10 outs at best).
You can fold, sure, he has a better possible made hand than you and is drawing to a hand you can't beat.
For that, you can't bet into him if he checks the 6th street. And you feel he is not going to fold no matter what.
Not one single brick was showing up on 3rd street. You didn't have a brick.
Seat 8 has plenty of bricks now. One would have to think he had a decent hand on 3rd.
So,
Seat 5 is looking decent for brickage in the hole.
You can fold and have 800 chips, but with antes and bet levels at the present rate the next hand you play will be the last and you will have all your chips in long before 7th street.
You win this hand and you are chip leader. If you can beat both seat 8 and seat 5. If you lose to seat 8 but can beat seat 5 then you are just back where you started.
You are in, just do it for as cheap as possible at this point and try to make your 7. If he makes his 6 then he beat you with a lucky 7th.
If he has a brick in the hole your 9 might still hold up as he would still only be drawing to an 8.
If he has a brick in the hole and a pair and is just representing an 8 and is betting to take the pot cause you bricked on 5th and 6th you have him crushed.
Alot of "ifs" sure, but if you fold then you just spewed 600 chips and your screwed anyway. so, take the hand to the end, and let it fall where it falls.
So, to sum up, on 6th street, seat 5 has
1.At best a made 8 drawing to a 6.
or
2.possible made 10 drawing to an 8.
Or
3.worse.
Which one do you think he has? Two are good for you, one is bad but still beatable. And if he catches a really good card on 7th it is possible you are beat no matter what you do.
so, if you think #1 then fold, if you think #2 call his bet on 6th. and if you think #3 then get it in.
You have been playing with the villian, you should know.
Fold and take your chances on a later hand
or play this one
and take your chances to be chip leader.
I say, go for the chip lead (#2) but keep a few chips for one last gasp, just in case. |
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cubbies760
Drawing Dead
Joined: 19 Oct 2006
Posts: 12144
Location: Running From the Law
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2009 6:28 pm Post subject: |
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| I'm assuming keep betting meant that as long as the hand didn't change drastically, keep betting. Unfortunately, you bricked on 6th, while the villian may have improved, so it may be wise to now back off. He may have improved enough for you to be drawing slim. |
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alex j beeson
Luckbox Boy
Joined: 15 Jul 2007
Posts: 3188
Location: Riding the Rakeback gravy train
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2009 6:46 pm Post subject: |
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Yes,
That-
| cubbies760 wrote: |
| I'm assuming keep betting meant that as long as the hand didn't change drastically, keep betting. Unfortunately, you bricked on 6th, while the villian may have improved, so it may be wise to now back off. He may have improved enough for you to be drawing slim. |
Thank you Cubs,
I talk to freaking much. |
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grimm860
Three of a Kind
Joined: 29 Jul 2007
Posts: 83
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2009 7:48 pm Post subject: |
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| alex j beeson wrote: |
Yes,
That-
| cubbies760 wrote: |
| I'm assuming keep betting meant that as long as the hand didn't change drastically, keep betting. Unfortunately, you bricked on 6th, while the villian may have improved, so it may be wise to now back off. He may have improved enough for you to be drawing slim. |
Thank you Cubs,
I talk to freaking much. |
You didnt talk very much when you posted keep betting, and even though the OP asked you to explain it twice, you danced around that like a politician.
Its kinda funny all the answers up to 5th were complete, push , shove, keep betting and 1 street later it's dont bet no matter what you do.
In razz, your hand is not made, till its made. This hand is certainly vulnerable on 5th and quite possibly behind on 6th. Seat 8 pry still has 4 to a wheel if not paired or certainly drawing to beat a 9
Its mostly read dependant now, balls to wall if you feel you're ahead, fold/ check if you dont. Call if its worth the redraw to you in this point of tourny. |
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gonefshng
Royal Flush
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
Posts: 891
Location: give me rakeback liberty or give you death
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| Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2009 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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Here is how the hand played out
Tournament - Razz (150/300), Ante 25, Bring-In 50 ()
Seat 1: 555
Seat 2: 2,088
Hero: 1,360
Seat 5: 4,734
Seat 6: 2,651
Seat 8: 535
3rd Street - (1.00 SB)
Seat 1: xx xx 5 ___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 8 ___brings-in___folds
Hero: 7 3 A ___calls___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 6 ___calls___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 3 ___folds
Seat 8: xx xx A ___completes
4th Street - (4.33 SB)
Hero: 7 3 A 4 ___bets
Seat 5: xx xx 6 8 ___calls
Seat 8: xx xx A T ___calls
5th Street - (3.67 BB)
Hero: 7 3 A 4 9 ___bets
Seat 5: xx xx 6 8 T ___calls
Seat 8: xx xx A T 2 ___calls 210 (all-in)
6th Street - (6.37 BB)
Hero: 7 3 A 4 9 4 ___bets___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 6 8 T A ___checks___raises
Seat 8: xx xx A T 2 Q ___all-in
Razz Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand ......Pot equity ......Wins ......Ties
73a494 ....23.81% ......138,321 ..9,107
(8-764t)a .66.43% ......393,812 ..9,561
8-7at2q .....9.76% ........57,893 ..1,280
I make a big mistake betting here for obv reasons. I was frustrated and tilted, so now it costs me 2 big bets. Tilt or donkdom wouldnt allow me to rationally think this thru before i bet. Even though, I'm sure i'm beat here, I decide to call the raise with a 7 redraw. Comments on the call?
River - (10.37 BB)
Hero: 7 3 A 4 9 4 Q ___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 6 8 T A xx___bets
Seat 8: xx xx A T 2 Q xx___all-in
Razz Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand .......Pot equity ......Wins ....Ties
73a494Q .....2.80% ......16,798 .....0
(8-764t)a* .84.87% ....508,700 ..1,096
8-7at2q* ...12.33% ......73,406 ..1,096
Total pot: (10.37 BB - 3,110)
Results (in white):[color:white]
Total pot 3,110 Main pot 1,730. Side pot 1,380. | Rake 0
Note: this site shuffles the hole cards.
Seat 8: [4c 3h Ad Tc 2h Qd As] - T,4,3,2,A
[/color]
Made me bitter to go from a fav to a dog so quick, the only good thing i did was fold 7th. and luckily seat 8 didn't hit his draw either. It saved me a couple hundred chips, which i used to win a hand or 2 and outlast a few players.
The other considerations in this hand, which don't come into play normally, was this was a league. The leaderboard considerations can and do affect some decisions differently
LUCKBOX (you know who you are) |
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khjv675
Pair
Joined: 11 Apr 2009
Posts: 37
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| Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2009 5:31 am Post subject: |
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seems i gotta learn a lot, you guys are too good at it
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DuttyWinin
High Card
Joined: 30 Sep 2009
Posts: 8
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2009 10:27 am Post subject: |
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| One thing not mentioned here so far. When you have that many low door cards and that much action on 3rd street, you know that there are alot of low cards burned. In a hand like this, ANY made low is less common and therefore your made 9 with draw is in much less danger than you might think. The mentality of the other players in the game is important (if they are trappy or if they are all nits) but betting here should be considered a value bet until you are reraised. Even then, would not fold this hand. A bet should return a bad call or two, and calling a reraise wont hurt you as you have a great draw. |
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