Online Poker Forum - The Amazing Streakiness of This Game

Kenny1022 · High Card Joined: 07 Mar 2009 Posts: 1

Ive been playing holdem regularly for some time now -- sometimes getting 10+ hours a day in for several days in a week. In this time I've come to be amazed at how streaky the game often is. For example, it is not uncommon for me to have big pocket pairs and strong aces beaten by face-rag hands repeatedly for hours it seems. And the really amazing part of this is that, much more often than not, I'm beaten by the opponent building a flush or straight on the rag card! When I run the hands through pokerstove to see just what my odds were preflop, on the flop, and turn I 'm usually a 70%-90%+ favorite all the way to the river and then boom. I guess you know the story. I understand that this is variance and that I should be happy that my opponents are willing to play such weak hands. I am not here to whine about bad beats. In fact, I've also noticed that there are times that I would have won 60%- 70% of a contiguous set of hands with very weak hole-cards....if I had played them. My question, I guess, is this: has anyone looked into the streakiness of holdem from a mathematical perspective? That is, is there a sound mathematical/statistical method for understanding this phenomena and incorporating it into a winning poker strategy? Thanks....kenny1022

nienie23 · Posted: Sat Mar 07, 2009 1:53 pm Post subject:

Don't worry about this. Look at this hand I payed this week.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Pre-Flop: J

A

dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+2 calls

Flop: ($1.60) J

T

7

(3 Players)
BB checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG+2 calls

Turn: ($3.10) 2

(3 Players)
BB checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG+2 calls

River: ($6.10) 2

(3 Players)
BB checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero calls, BB calls

Results: $7.60 Pot ($0.35 Rake)
Hero showed J

A

(two pair, Jacks and Twos) and LOST (-$2.50 NET)
BB showed 8

8

(two pair, Eights and Twos) and LOST (-$2.50 NET)
UTG+2 showed 9

8

(a straight, Jack high) and WON $7.25 (+$4.75 NET)

The winner entered the pot with trash and flopped a straight. And since he never raised, I could not tell I was beaten. What are the odds of flopping a straight? What are the odds of hitting a straight on river with his trash? I don't know but I will play my hand against his any time.

This morning, I got pi$$ed because some donk coldcalled my raise with AA with 5-7 suited and hit a straight on the river. In the last 7 days, 1100 hands, I was dealt AA 6 times and this was the only time I lost. I guess we tend to remember the bad beats. Any good book about poker will tell you that these dumb aces have to win once in a while in order to keep them at the table so we can make money out of them.

I still don't know much about the math of poker but I can tell you that if the odds of him beating you with his trash are 1-1000 (or 1000-1), you will have to lose a few times. Just forget about that hand, get ready for the next one and get your money back.

P.S.: Don't play weak hands for the thrill. They are probably going to be the disaster of your session. Learn to fold. Just last week, I re-read Lee Jones to realized that I was playing overcards instead of folding them or small pairs that did not flopped sets. You have no idea how my game improved by losing less in hopeless situations.

IABoomer · Moderator Joined: 29 Oct 2006 Posts: 8194

Since each hand played is an independent event, there is no way to predict based on the last hand what the result of the next hand will be. So no, you can't measure the streakiness of a game and formulate a strategy to combat it.

dcdoorknob · Posted: Sat Mar 07, 2009 2:28 pm Post subject:

The way to properly account for the streakiness is good bankroll management. If you don't know what that is, look it up, thank me later.

Other than that you just play the best poker you can every hand.

tjs545 · Message Board Junkie Joined: 20 Aug 2008 Posts: 1011

The thing you have to remember with limit is that you will see a lot more players enter a hand to see a flop since they can do so relatively cheaply. Especially when you have a couple of donks at the table. If you have aces and the 4 people including you see a flop with say 77, A5 suited, and QK, you are now just slightly better than a coinflip to win the hand.

All you can do is bet and raise when you have the goods to try and force some people out of the hand, and hope for the best. Don't be afraid to throw your hand away if the board looks a bit scary and you run into resistance. Play a solid game, and the limit tables are very beatable.

jrounds · High Card Joined: 20 Apr 2009 Posts: 4

What's the difference between a donk and a fish? A donk makes his hands....

jjc16_1 · High Card Joined: 25 Sep 2009 Posts: 20

yeurmine · Pair Joined: 07 Jun 2009 Posts: 26

I've been playing poker for over 20 years.

This is the only site where I sometimes cringe getting big PP's.
When you run bad on this site, it runs incredibly bad, losing to 2-6 outers consistently for hours against people who didn't have any business in the hand pre flop and especially after the flop, where they have 2 under cards.

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