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DraytheDJ
Guest
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 Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:39 pm Post subject: Odds on runner runner flush? |
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| Just curious what the odds are for a suited hand after the flop to catch runner runner. Happened last night a few games in a row, fun stuff. |
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DownriverRick
Straight Flush
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 355
Location: Downriver, of course
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| Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2005 7:39 pm Post subject: |
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If you're suited, you start off by having a 41.6% chance of flopping a three-card flush. At that point, the odds of making a runner-runner flush is 4.2%. Pretty slim, but you'll still find plenty of players that know 1/4 of the deck is of the suit they need, so it can't be that tough...  |
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michaellewis
Flush
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 126
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| Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:49 am Post subject: |
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| What about the odds of hitting running quads? LOL That just happend to me in PLO. I hate to turn this into a bad beat story so I won't bother. |
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DownriverRick
Straight Flush
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 355
Location: Downriver, of course
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| Posted: Fri Dec 23, 2005 12:55 am Post subject: |
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| Odds of a runner-runner catching two specific cards, like the last two for quads or two middle cards in a straight flush, is 989 to 1. |
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Darkside112
Two Pair
Joined: 23 Dec 2005
Posts: 63
Location: At the table
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| Posted: Sat Dec 24, 2005 12:06 am Post subject: |
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I normally figure it this way:
say your looking for a runner runner flush.
roughly 1/4 cards will be helpful
1/4 x 1/4 = 1/16
so you have a roughly 1/16 shot of getting runner runner
Thats probalby flawed math but it still puts your right where you should be, big underdog  |
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Kei
Two Pair
Joined: 28 Aug 2005
Posts: 69
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| Posted: Tue Dec 27, 2005 4:19 pm Post subject: Re: |
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| Darkside112 wrote: |
I normally figure it this way:
say your looking for a runner runner flush.
roughly 1/4 cards will be helpful
1/4 x 1/4 = 1/16
so you have a roughly 1/16 shot of getting runner runner
Thats probalby flawed math but it still puts your right where you should be, big underdog |
More like 1/5 of the cards will help you (about 10 out of 47 cards are left of your suit). So 1/5 * 1/5 = 1/25, or 4%.
Not a huge difference from your 6%, but just a minor correction. |
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Mighty Russ
Pair
Joined: 17 Nov 2005
Posts: 26
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| Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2005 2:44 am Post subject: |
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| if you're after a runner runner against me, chances are about 70 percent for ya. lol. |
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