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DJ Ninjah Message Board Junkie
Joined: 17 Apr 2006 Posts: 2653 Location: New York, NY
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Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 3:25 am Post subject: Just wondering |
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Just wondering, cause I think this beat will stick with me now for a long time. Forgive me for not having a hand history for this one.
Ok to to set this up this guy is a major donkey and I dunno how long he blew Satan for, but I watched him get as high as 550 dollars on a .5/1 table solely on bad plays. Anyway he was playing everyhand, in most cases he even put in a min raise. I look down at my hand and see A K A 2 . I call at first, but when he puts in his little reraise I decide I'm going to but in a max reraise. To my astonishment, I get reraised. I figure this donkey wants to play this game so I'll go crush him (at this point I should mention I was already tilted as he already got 100 of my dollars when he pushed me all in with a flush draw and I already held the nut low, and then he hit his card while at the same time counterfitting my low, giving him a scoop), and reraised him again. He pushes me all-in and I call and he shows 2 3 J Q . Needless to say I am shocked he called me with such garbage but I figured oh well guess I'll be getting my money back and then some (I had 122 at the time) The flop comes out 9-2-7 giving him a a pair and counterfitting both our lows. Disaster comes on the turn, and he hits hit Jack for two pair. The river comes up blank (a 6) and I'm felted again.
This is the one part of poker that kills me. I spent the last week playing great poker and working up my bankroll, only to be cheated out of it all of it by a luckbox. As whole it has characterised my entire poker career. I always seem to grind out some good winnings only to be kicked back down by one bad suck out.
Anyway I have a few questions I'd like to pose.
1. Was that the right play in that hand specifically (I probably fold on the flop if I'm faced with a raise)?
2. Should I ever try to be all-in preflop in an Omaha/8 cash game (obviously, I'm not gonna fold if I hold AA2x and other people are reraiseing each other)?
3. If I get felted, should I not rebuy no matter what (after the second time he busted me I felt maybe I should just stop playing at the table), even if there is a complete ATM at the table (I should note he was paying off other players quite handsomely, he went from 350 to 550 to 300 to 550 to 350 before leaving the table)?
4. If my play is fundmentally characterized by long positive grinding sessons over the course of a week, followed by one day of brutal suckouts to leave me where I was at at the beginning of the week, is there something intrinsically wrong with my play?
5. Since Full Tilt Omaha and Omaha/8 players are pretty well known for being nut peddlers, Would I possibly find better success playing at other sites? I have no problem playing against skilled players, I'm usually able to make a good ammount off of them, so would I actually do worse at a site with more fish? I dunno it just always seems like I never pull in enough to cover the suck outs because it always seems like every time I get people to throw money into the pot is when I get sucked out. It's so fustrating to go and win 10 7 dollar pots, only to lose a 50 dollar one and have to start all over, only to have to happen again. |
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DJ Ninjah Message Board Junkie
Joined: 17 Apr 2006 Posts: 2653 Location: New York, NY
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Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:28 am Post subject: |
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| I'd also just like to throw in a bit of math for the play. My EE pre-flop is 70%, making this the same as KK vs. AQ. Now we all know no one here wouldn't go all-in preflop in Texas Hold 'em with an EE of 70%, but is that not high enough to go all-in with in Omaha/8 |
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MegaDisgruntled High Card
Joined: 12 Jul 2006 Posts: 8
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Posted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 1:56 am Post subject: |
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1. Yes, you want it all in with the hand you had. I will shove this hand all day long.
2. With that hand, your goal is to get it all in preflop, especially against a maniac player.
3. If you feel you are on tilt, then stop. Somedays you just don't have the cards or luck to overcome even the worst players. I hate it when there are so many donks at the table and I can't even get a hand to play.
4. It depends. What is your BB/HR? How many months has this been the norm and over how many hands?
5. If you can't win at Full Tilt, you can't win anywhere. I am sorry, but I feel this is true. These are the softest games on the net for Omaha. I must exclude Paradise as I have no way to track them. The players here make less preflop raises than other sites.
Les |
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stevn Message Board Junkie
Joined: 19 Feb 2006 Posts: 1117
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Posted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:04 am Post subject: |
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| 2 hands ruined your bankroll? |
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jbrennen Straight Flush
Joined: 16 Aug 2005 Posts: 422
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Posted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 6:47 am Post subject: |
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| MegaDisgruntled wrote: |
1. Yes, you want it all in with the hand you had. I will shove this hand all day long.
2. With that hand, your goal is to get it all in preflop, especially against a maniac player.
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I disagree with both of these with respect to the original poster, because his table stake was a significant part of his bankroll.
Bankroll management is just as important (or even more so) than getting your money in as a favorite.
I'm not advocating that you fold the best hand, but don't stake your entire bankroll on one hand. The fact that DJ Ninjah is bringing any significant percentage of his bankroll to the table shows that he needs to slow down. If you've got a $200 bankroll, don't take more than about $40 to the table at a time. At least that's my rule of thumb.
The problem is that it takes a whole lot of grinding away to multiply your bankroll up tenfold, but it only takes one unlucky hand to undo all of that progress. |
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byamamoto1 Bay Area Bidness
Joined: 11 Aug 2005 Posts: 2361
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Posted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:00 pm Post subject: |
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| my question is why do you want to get it all-in preflop, in a game of draws, against a maniac? if anything i would have tried to play a cheaper flop, (not unraised though) and outplay him after the flop. you've got a monster STARTING hand, however not necessarily a monster in itself. you know if you hit a big hand, the maniac will most definitely pay you off. if you don't hit, which was the case in this hand, you can get away from it and look forward to the next hand. just my 2cents |
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MegaDisgruntled High Card
Joined: 12 Jul 2006 Posts: 8
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Posted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:19 pm Post subject: |
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In response to jbrennen:
You can disagree with #1 all you like. If you don't have the balls to play this all-in everytime, then you should not be playing at this level. If you play scared with your money, you WILL lose. Maybe that is the original poster's problem, he is way over his head.
#2, same as first, you need a bigger bankroll or smaller tables.
In response to byamamoto1:
It's an AA2K. Keep folding your AA2x preflop with the ace suited for any amount. It's players like you that I make my money from. 70% equity is a solid all-in bet. Sure I would love to see the flop and with an AA2k the goal would be to bring in more players, but sometimes you gotta shove. Try playing the NL08 games, it's common.
Ever play on Party Poker? Try to get in without raises, it's damn near impossible.
Les |
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byamamoto1 Bay Area Bidness
Joined: 11 Aug 2005 Posts: 2361
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Posted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:43 pm Post subject: |
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first off no need to get all defensive. secondly i never suggest folding an AA2K pre-flop, merely calling on the flop instead of re-raising. there is more than one way to play a hand and its not an exact science. i'm giving DJ credit for being a good player and being able to make moves after the flop based on what has been happening. he knows the guy is a maniac, and could draw full money out of a big hand from him. why throw it all-in before the flop and cross your fingers hoping for the best? if you're a good enough player to outplay your opponents, then flat calling a re-raise here wouldn't necessarily be a bad play. its not like hold'em where you have the AA and always re-raise and push with it pre-flop.
DJ already said he was tilted which could have been a major factor in which he re-raised all-in. ask him again and i'm sure he'll have to actually think about re-raising all-in in that spot. laying down that hand preflop is a very -EV play.
b
Last edited by byamamoto1 on Tue Jul 18, 2006 8:46 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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jbrennen Straight Flush
Joined: 16 Aug 2005 Posts: 422
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Posted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:55 pm Post subject: |
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| MegaDisgruntled wrote: |
| If you don't have the balls to play this all-in everytime, then you should not be playing at this level. |
Replace "balls" with "bankroll" and that's what I'm saying.
The original poster made the mistake of bringing too much of his bankroll to the table -- he ended up in a situation where he made a +EV play that was an absolutely horrible play from a bankroll management standpoint.
Better to avoid that situation by keeping most of your bankroll off the table... From a risk management standpoint, the most you should risk on a 70-30 proposition is about 40% of your bankroll. If you constantly risk 40% of your net worth on 70-30 propositions, you will end up wildly rich in a reasonably short time. But if you constantly risk 80% of your net worth on 70-30 propositions, you will end up broke.
To see this, imagine that you start with $10000 and risk 40% of your bankroll on each of 100 bets, each with a 70% chance of getting paid even money. The most likely result is that you'll win 70 bets and lose 30 bets. Each winning bet will multiply your bankroll by 1.4 and each losing bet will multiply your bankroll by 0.6. After 70 wins and 30 losses, you'll have a bankroll of $37,454,155.
Now take the same situation, but risk 80% of your bankroll on each bet. Each winning bet will multiply your bankroll by 1.8 and each losing bet will multiply your bankroll by 0.2. After 70 wins and 30 losses, your initial $10000 is reduced to $7.94. You've made 100 +EV bets in a row, and you're almost certainly crying about how unlucky you've been to lose nearly your entire bankroll. But no, you weren't unlucky -- you won exactly as often as the odds would predict. You just mismanaged your bankroll. |
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DJ Ninjah Message Board Junkie
Joined: 17 Apr 2006 Posts: 2653 Location: New York, NY
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Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2006 1:08 am Post subject: |
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| stevn wrote: |
| 2 hands ruined your bankroll? |
No, Geez I'm not THAT bad at BR managent, two hands however DID ruin about 1000 hands worth of work. That is why I was pissed. |
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MegaDisgruntled High Card
Joined: 12 Jul 2006 Posts: 8
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Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2006 1:32 am Post subject: |
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I have to agree with that last one. Nothing worse than working 6 hours to make $300 in the daytime, only to play after my wife goes to bed and give it back. Luckily that doesn't happen very often.
DJ: I guess the goal for you is to make more over those 1000 hands, so that kind of loss still leaves you up. But how are you going to accomplish that? Give us some numbers, bb/hr, vp. pfr, maybe we can help. Since I rarely see you in my game, I am more than willing to help a fellow player.
Les |
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DJ Ninjah Message Board Junkie
Joined: 17 Apr 2006 Posts: 2653 Location: New York, NY
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Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:07 am Post subject: |
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Ok, to respond a bit. I DID NOT lose my BR. Yes, I am playing over my BR level, but I'm fine with that, I don't have issues redepositing. I'm not pissed solely at the damage it did (although that doesn't help), I'm just fustrated that in two hands where a terrible play was made in my opponent, I was sent back down to where I was at the beginning of the week. The risk I took was about 12% of my bankroll at the time.
Normally I do not want to bet THAT much pre-flop, but I did have a very specific reason for doing so. He was a manic but he could fold some hands if he was basically drawing dead. I knew the most he probably held here was a naked A-2, A-3, or 2-3, so I felt if he was willing to go all-in pre-flop against me, I may as well hook him while I can. Plus, I was in the SB, meaning I would have been out of position. It's probably a move I won't do again in pot-limit. While I will never have a problem going all-in with this hand if need be, but f I know I am better than my opponent, why not see a flop and outplay them? That said, I will say though I WILL NOT have a problem putting in at least one raise with it pre-flop. Most limpers call anyway making raises of either 2x or 3x the BB well worth the times you miss the flop completely.
I was seething and I was waiting for another opportunity to take a BIG shot at this guy, but it just never happened. I have no doubt if he didn't leave after two other people got him to pay them big, I would have at least made back one of the hands off of him. While I was angry, my play wasn't tilted (if anything it got tighter).
My BB/hr isn't what I'd like it to be. I have 90 hours of table time (I only recently started playing Omaha/8 cash games exclusively) and my hourly rate is about two dollars (however most of my games are mixed between .1/25 to .5/1 so there really is no clear BB/hr), although I never play less than 2 tables, usually 3, occasionally 4, so in real time I probably have about 45 hours of actual time at the tables. While I am relatively new, I feel like I have a great feel for this game. There are still a few nuances I have to learn, but mostly my grasp of the game is tight enough that at least 2/3 of my sessions are winning ones. For an example of some lessons I need to learn, I made a huge mistake in last weeks DS tournament. I was getting about 3.5 - 1 pot odds to call a bet with top set and the nut flush draw on the turn. I had the choice of folding and still being in the top 20 in chips, or calling and potentially being sent back to having my starting stack. I called KNOWING my opponent held the wheel, and realized as soon as I did that at best this was a spilt (there was another person all-in as well, so a split was still fairly lucrative) and a terrible play on my behalf.
Full Tilt is getting fishier (thank god), but Pokerroom is still an easier game (terrible players after the flop). But you are right, people here seem confused by people who make value bets pre-flop.
My parting notes are that it retrospect, I might not be as angry if this was hold'em, and I lost KK-AQ (then again I might be pissed that some donkey would re-raise 3 times with AQ). Same odds, it just looks better when you lose to an overpair. jbrennen, I love that example of the making 70-30 bets with 40% as opposed to 80%, that stat should be posted in every BR management discussion. Lastly, I've made back $115 already so hopefully one more day of good play and I'll be restored and ready to build my BR to new heights. |
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DJ Ninjah Message Board Junkie
Joined: 17 Apr 2006 Posts: 2653 Location: New York, NY
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Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:15 am Post subject: |
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| MegaDisgruntled wrote: |
I have to agree with that last one. Nothing worse than working 6 hours to make $300 in the daytime, only to play after my wife goes to bed and give it back. Luckily that doesn't happen very often.
DJ: I guess the goal for you is to make more over those 1000 hands, so that kind of loss still leaves you up. But how are you going to accomplish that? Give us some numbers, bb/hr, vp. pfr, maybe we can help. Since I rarely see you in my game, I am more than willing to help a fellow player.
Les |
I don't have pokertracker and as far as I know there is no Omaha tracker for Mac, so solid stats are hard to come by. I know I am in on about 35% of flops. If I had to make a rough estimate of my BB/hr based on the fact I play so many different levels, I would guess it's close to 5 (I only moved up to .5/1 about a week and a half ago) |
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jbrennen Straight Flush
Joined: 16 Aug 2005 Posts: 422
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Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:49 am Post subject: |
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| DJ Ninjah wrote: |
Ok, to respond a bit. I DID NOT lose my BR. Yes, I am playing over my BR level, but I'm fine with that, I don't have issues redepositing. I'm not pissed solely at the damage it did (although that doesn't help), I'm just fustrated that in two hands where a terrible play was made in my opponent, I was sent back down to where I was at the beginning of the week. The risk I took was about 12% of my bankroll at the time.
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My mistake, I thought that "working up my bankroll, only to be cheated out of it all of it" referred to losing your whole stake. Maybe you're managing better than it seemed at first. 8) |
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DJ Ninjah Message Board Junkie
Joined: 17 Apr 2006 Posts: 2653 Location: New York, NY
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Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2006 10:20 am Post subject: |
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| It's ok, obviously you weren't the only one to have that idea. Poor wording on my part. |
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