Online Poker Forum - Is this a call? (super turbo)

cardfish2 · Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2009 8:16 am Post subject: Is this a call? (super turbo)

Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold'em Tournament, 100/200 Blinds, 4 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): 120
BB: 780
UTG: 1,620
BTN: 180

Pre-Flop: (300) 8

K

dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, hero ?

Call here and take my chances or wait for the blinds to swallow up the other shortie?

marsupial311 · Royal Flush Joined: 14 Oct 2008 Posts: 738

Wow, quite interesting.

We can't expect anything better than 3rd even if we double up here so i'm probably folding. I hate to put my tournament life at risk hoping it goes bad for someone else but it seems like the best play.

bigpairde · Moderator Joined: 26 Apr 2008 Posts: 10107

i would call here.
its HU and you have suited cards with a king. you only have 20 left behind when you fold. not much tourney equity

in order for the other shorty to be eliminated before you, he first needs to not have a chance to double up in the next hand and also has to lose when he becomes BB.

i didnt play with numbers though, but i really think its a call

OMFG_TITS · Banned Joined: 13 Oct 2009 Posts: 10

Yeah I'm calling too. K8s is almost 60% against a random hand, and the other shorty is 50% to survive his BB. This assumes that shorty doesn't double up next hand when he's UTG, and also that his BB hand is HU, but those two assumptions pretty much cancel one another out.

bigpairde · Moderator Joined: 26 Apr 2008 Posts: 10107

I fed sit and go wizard with it. it suggests push
(equity when you push: 9.76, when fold: 2.46, so the difference is 7.3)

goomlah · Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2009 1:28 pm Post subject:

screw the wizard: If you remembered my old quote: YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME! (thank you Herman Edwards). Get the money in and stop worrying about $9.

OMFG_TITS · Banned Joined: 13 Oct 2009 Posts: 10

marsupial311 · Royal Flush Joined: 14 Oct 2008 Posts: 738

bigpairde · Moderator Joined: 26 Apr 2008 Posts: 10107

cardfish2 · Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2009 4:17 pm Post subject:

cardfish2 · Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2009 4:21 pm Post subject:

I posted this on another forum and it was unanimous that it was a fold (mostly for the reason marsupial gave). Even if I double up (and assuming the short stack wins when he is in bb), I am still all in when the blinds hit me again.

This is probably a relatively simple math equation but I'm not too bright.

cubbies760 · Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2009 7:09 pm Post subject:

I think it's a pretty easy call. You have a better than average hand, and most of your chips are in the blind. Yes, you could fold and see what happens to the other shorty, but you know he's gonna see a showdown, and possibly double up. If he doesn't bust, you're toast. Take the chance here to stay alive, so if the other shorty survives his all-in, you'll still have something to double up with.

TinkyTyler · Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2009 7:18 pm Post subject:

francois8 · Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 11:18 am Post subject:

fat rugger · Message Board Junkie Joined: 06 Feb 2009 Posts: 1066

Francois and CF,

I'm pretty sure it's your percent equity in the prize pool. So at the start of the tournament everyone has 11.1% equity of the prize pool in a 9 man SNG (from a mathematical standpoint, not taking into account skill). And now you have an expected equity of 9.76% if you push and 2.46% if you fold.

However Wiz doesn't take into account what may happen to the other short stack so it is not a definate answer.

I watched a video on Wiz this morning so I think what I said is somewhat accurate. But I could have it a little confused.

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