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dodge these
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2009 5:09 am    Post subject: An Interesting hand Reply with quote

Button is the same 95/55 fish from BvB hand so that is what makes hand interetsing. Other player seems to be a reg as he is multitabling and seems to play a fairly tag style (28/16) over about 100 hands but all from this session with the fish and have no prior history with him. If I am right and he is a thinking player then he would have noticed me bluff a fiarly big pot and value bet the fish relatively thin before.

Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 Pot Limit Omaha Hi $0.30 Ante - 4 players -
The Official Hand History

BTN: $408.20
Hero (SB): $671.25
BB: $816.00
CO: $117.60

Pre Flop: ($4.20) Hero is SB with 5 Spade T Diamond 7 Spade 6 Club
CO calls $2, BTN raises to $4, Hero calls $3, BB calls $2, CO calls $2

Flop: ($17.20) 8 Club 3 Heart 6 Heart (4 players)
Hero checks, BB requests TIME, BB checks, CO checks, BTN bets $17.20, Hero calls $17.20, BB calls $17.20, CO folds

Turn: ($68.80) T Club (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, BTN checks

River: ($68.80) 4 Spade (3 players)
Hero bets $34.40, BB requests TIME, BB raises to $150, BTN folds, Hero ??

The more I think about it the C/c seems the way to go here, but there are several dinamycs that make it rather unclear to me. First off The fish is likely to call with a lot of marginal hands to the point I was thinking making the same v-bet when I turned 2 pair before rivering the second nuts... Also given how likely the fish is to call and that there were 2 fds on the turn, it seems highly unlikely that the other player would check the nuts there, and that is still the only hand that beats me.

However, he could have been waiting for the fish to fire another barrel as he probaly would and even stack off with any fd there... but he checked behind and the good player has just repoted me now and fish has folded.

But from his perspective he can well assume the same about me. How likely is it that I check the nuts on that turn, and it is quite possible I had a pair with fd, and I just lead out when it didn't get there, as no one else showed any strength. In any case give that he has played tight so far it is quite a good spot to repop me and take it away as I can't really consider calling with anything other than the slow played nuts on turn, or my hand as it so happens...

Now for this very reason I think a fold here is by no means a given. Again, unless he slow played nuts on turn with a fish still in hand, then it is far more likely he is on the same busted draw type hand he may be putting me on, and very well make a move as I just suggested above...

Any further/better thoughts and comments please post Very Happy
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francois8
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2009 10:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Possible he had 79, thought BTN would pot turn to chase away flush draw, you'd call (or not) and then he'd raise. That's risky as hell, imo, not sure I'd have done it even with redraws. I think CC was the way to go on river, let someone bet their missed flush draws if they so choose... I just don't see the value in betting unless you think someone will call you light with an unimproved set. As played, I think he's either got 57 for the tie or 79 for the win at this point, with an outside chance of total air / missed flush draws.

I fold here and kick myself for not checking river and letting myself have a cheaper call of possible bluff.
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dodge these
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2009 2:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

francois8 wrote:
I just don't see the value in betting unless you think someone will call you light with an unimproved set.


I think the button will call ther with an unimproved pair half the time and almost always with a set. In fact the biggest pot I lost which might be relevant for overall analysis of all 3 hands posted is my bluffing the A high flush on the river for about 2/3 pot and getting called down by the tag player with a weak flush and then the button still calls with a set even though there was a str8 and a flush on board. Hence my thinking I can v-bet here, but certainly the insuing action makes me reconsider that some.
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goomlah
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2009 3:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know little about omaha, but I see little way someone can check OTT if they had 79 with 2 flush draws out there. Call the all-in and hope he's got a set, cause checking the turn here with 79 is so -EV.
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francois8
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2009 4:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dodge these wrote:
francois8 wrote:
I just don't see the value in betting unless you think someone will call you light with an unimproved set.


I think the button will call ther with an unimproved pair half the time and almost always with a set. In fact the biggest pot I lost which might be relevant for overall analysis of all 3 hands posted is my bluffing the A high flush on the river for about 2/3 pot and getting called down by the tag player with a weak flush and then the button still calls with a set even though there was a str8 and a flush on board. Hence my thinking I can v-bet here, but certainly the insuing action makes me reconsider that some.


I think a set will probably call, but I think I'd prefer to let someone with a busted flush draw take a shot and bluff at it here. Your hand obviously has plenty of showdown value and its easier to call the bet than the raise imho.

Basically if we check I call fairly comfortable that I may be best since my check showed some weakness and maybe he puts me on busted draw... but once we bet and he raises its 1) more expensive to call and 2) depending on opponent, it could be less likely he's bluffing.

With stacks this deep, with a good but non-nut hand on the river, especially when there are many busted draws possible, I'm willing to sacrifice a little value sometimes to show the hand down more cheaply.
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