Online Poker Forum - 200nl 6m, river decision w/ kjo

ChokeOnPretzel · Full House Joined: 18 May 2008 Posts: 247

Grabbed by
NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
Hero ($200)
BB ($163)
UTG ($734)
UTG+1 ($164)
CO ($400) 41/27/9 (40), 50% steal (6), 35/36/33 flop/t/r agg freq
BTN ($817)

Hero antes $0.30
BB antes $0.30
UTG antes $0.30
UTG+1 antes $0.30
CO antes $0.30
BTN antes $0.30

Dealt to Hero J Heart

K

fold, fold, CO raises to $6, BTN calls $6, Hero calls $5, BB calls $4

FLOP ($25.80) K Heart

8

6

Hero checks, BB checks, CO bets $16, BTN folds, Hero calls $16, BB folds

TURN ($57.80) K Heart

8

6

2

Hero checks, CO bets $42, Hero calls $42

RIVER ($141) K Heart

8

6

2

T

Hero checks, CO bets $335 (AI),

Villain seems somewhat smart and v. aggressive. I've seen him double and triple barrel at least a couple times already without a call on the end. Button was a huge donk, so I don't know if that justifies a call preflop.

~$135 effective on the river. What's his range here? Nuts or air/missed draws?

nolan6 · Posted: Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:22 pm Post subject:

His range is stronger than yours, but given your hand is pretty much obvious your trying to pot control he could easily try to barrel you off a TPTK hand. I think he presumes you'd C/Rai the turn with a set alot on that kinda board so a sets outta your range, he thinks a flush is out of your range obv, he thinks two pair is, and he also thinks AK is quite often aswell.

If he knows that you know his range is stronger though he could well bluff in this spot and so it comes down to a levelling war.

This may be wrong but i think i'd fold the turn but if i did call the turn i'd have to call most rivers, that said this rivers the ultimate scare card.

Also against an agg villain i'd fold pre flop with this hand OOP, your rarely going to win a big pot with it, but could lose a big one against good agg villains.

adam27x · Posted: Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:29 pm Post subject:

check/guess lines really suck imo. I think pre is pretty close and while we're certianly ahead of his range, his range does include every hand that dominates us and it seems like you don't want to give him credit for a hand so there's just a ton of spots like this one where you'll want to snap off a big bet with a really marginal hand.

My default is to fold pre, and fwiw I don't think squeezing would be good here either.

As played pre, I think I want to fold the turn, but the depends on whether or not he'll barrel blanks the same way he'll barrel overcards. The turn is a total blank so if he won't barrel blanks then his range is significantly stronger there. The straight draw gets there OTR, but I think that's a really small portion (if it is at all) of his range and I don't expect him to show up with a flush much either. So his range is air, missed draws, KQ, KT, AK, sets. I'm generally folding the turn but if calling the turn is ok, then calling the river probably is too.

G Goddard · Four of a Kind Joined: 05 Aug 2009 Posts: 279

I either fold the turn or call down. Against this player I kind of like calling down. For the reasons nolan mentioned, KJ is the strongest part of your range. A good aggro player knows that and will try to make you fold it.

I don't think squeezing is terrible either. There are antes, CO is opening super wide and the fish is calling with any two so we can assume top pair is good when we flop it.

ChokeOnPretzel · Full House Joined: 18 May 2008 Posts: 247

Hmm, do you think he'd take that line with KT or KQ? Why would KT bet so huge on the turn, if at all? Wouldn't KQ likely check behind otr? I guess AK is possible, but I'd think he's slowing down some percentage of the time with that hand as well.

nolan6 · Posted: Sun Nov 01, 2009 3:08 pm Post subject:

No i dont think he's going for thin value here imo, its either bluffs or 2pair <

templar rage · Posted: Sun Nov 01, 2009 3:11 pm Post subject:

I'm not sure this guy would slow down with a King here. If I'm interpreting the AFq stats you provided correctly(possible I'm not since I don't really use these ones tbh), it seems he doesn't really slow down once he hits the board, otherwise I think his turn/river AFq's would drop? I think if you are calling the turn, you pretty much have to call the river, it just sucks you have to call all-in to do so.

As for the squeeze, there are probably arguments to doing so, but I get the feeling that at least one person would call, so I'm not really for it in this spot. I may or may not just fold pre. If I'm not, I'm probably playing TP exactly like this against an aggro player as long as the board doesn't run out horrendously, and it really didn't here.

adam27x · Posted: Sun Nov 01, 2009 3:24 pm Post subject:

Fwiw, I said that I don't like a squeeze because we'll be OOP when we're called, which is almost always, and the CO will continue with a range that mostly dominates us.

drtre1987 · Forum Farmacist Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 2933

folding pf would be pretty bad imo, especially with the fish OTB. even if he folded though, i'm still calling pf. our opponent is opening really wide and will cbet boards we hit almost everytime. and if we decide to float the flop OOP, he'll barrel when we hit our overcards.

c/f is probably best OTR. but before i'd go ahead and say that, i'd like to see what this history is we have on him. any specifics on the boards he 2/3 barrelled? if he's just kind of randomly firing despite getting bad barrelling cards or if he barrels whenever people are just c/c, then i might decide to look him up.

HuJwang · Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:07 pm Post subject:

i don't like calling the turn if you're not going to call the river as there are very few blank rivers here and he is very often going to fire the last in. i think he will also valueshove AK here as you can't have many hands that beat him.

i probably shut down on the turn, but as played i'd probably station it off on the river since i think he shoves the river with close to 100% of the hands he bets turn with.

ChokeOnPretzel · Full House Joined: 18 May 2008 Posts: 247

I couldn't remember any details at the time of the hand, so I don't know if the hand histories would do any good. Just very vague stuff - I remember seeing him barrel after raising pre and the board ran out something like 45Qr 7 8, and then I was sure I'd seen him 2 or 3 barrel fairly dry boards against multiple opponents at least a couple of times.

HuJwang · Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 10:45 pm Post subject:

rezults?

ChokeOnPretzel · Full House Joined: 18 May 2008 Posts: 247

called, guy mucked 56o and started talking

rich99cook · Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:54 pm Post subject:

cjcarroll · High Card Joined: 30 Oct 2009 Posts: 12

What a nutty pre-flop raise from the CO! His pot-stealing ploy was pretty transparent, and could easily have been called by way too many hands that could have beaten him, including yours. You may have chased him sooner with a good-sized check-raise OTF.

There's only one hand I would have sweated after the flop dropped, and that's trip 8s. Otherwise, I gotta be feeling pretty good about my hand, yes?

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